FootyTipsWorld Cup 2026 Prediction Results
Transparent post-match settlement for every finished match: final score, model pick, actual result, hit/miss and Brier score.
104 matches settled: 64.4% win/draw/loss hit rate, Brier 0.5016. This record includes every finished World Cup 2026 match in the database, including misses.
104
Settled matches
Settled matches
67
Correct W/D/L picks
Correct W/D/L picks
64.4%
Hit rate
Hit rate
0.5016
Average Brier
Average Brier
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| Match | Final score | Model pick | Actual | Result | Brier | Odds used | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico vs South Africa | 2–0 | Mexico | Mexico | Hit | 0.0152 | 1.45 | +0.45u |
| South Korea vs Czech Republic | 2–1 | South Korea | South Korea | Hit | 0.4189 | 2.73 | +1.73u |
| Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina | 1–1 | Canada | Draw | Miss | 1.5069 | 1.84 | -1.00u |
| USA vs Paraguay | 4–1 | USA | USA | Hit | 0.5959 | — | — |
| Qatar vs Switzerland | 1–1 | Switzerland | Draw | Miss | 1.5680 | 1.24 | -1.00u |
| Brazil vs Morocco | 1–1 | Brazil | Draw | Miss | 0.8175 | 1.718 | -1.00u |
| Haiti vs Scotland | 0–1 | Scotland | Scotland | Hit | 0.3012 | 1.567 | +0.57u |
| Australia vs Turkey | 2–0 | Turkey | Australia | Miss | 0.8252 | 1.748 | -1.00u |
| Germany vs Curaçao | 7–1 | Germany | Germany | Hit | 0.0250 | 1.066 | +0.07u |
| Netherlands vs Japan | 2–2 | Netherlands | Draw | Miss | 0.7638 | 2.14 | -1.00u |
| Ivory Coast vs Ecuador | 1–0 | Ecuador | Ivory Coast | Miss | 1.2694 | 2.68 | -1.00u |
| Sweden vs Tunisia | 5–1 | Sweden | Sweden | Hit | 0.6208 | 1.951 | +0.95u |
| Spain vs Cape Verde | 0–0 | Spain | Draw | Miss | 1.8924 | 1.093 | -1.00u |
| Belgium vs Egypt | 1–1 | Belgium | Draw | Miss | 0.9693 | 1.634 | -1.00u |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | 1–1 | Uruguay | Draw | Miss | 1.2829 | 1.489 | -1.00u |
| Iran vs New Zealand | 2–2 | Iran | Draw | Miss | 0.9906 | 1.844 | -1.00u |
| France vs Senegal | 3–1 | France | France | Hit | 0.1543 | 1.53 | +0.53u |
| Iraq vs Norway | 1–4 | Norway | Norway | Hit | 0.1318 | 1.248 | +0.25u |
| Argentina vs Algeria | 3–0 | Argentina | Argentina | Hit | 0.0688 | 1.474 | +0.47u |
| Austria vs Jordan | 3–1 | Austria | Austria | Hit | 0.3382 | 1.445 | +0.45u |
| Portugal vs DR Congo | 1–1 | Portugal | Draw | Miss | 1.3358 | 1.314 | -1.00u |
| England vs Croatia | 4–2 | England | England | Hit | 0.3424 | 1.748 | +0.75u |
| Ghana vs Panama | 1–0 | Panama | Ghana | Miss | 1.2395 | 3.407 | -1.00u |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia | 1–3 | Colombia | Colombia | Hit | 0.1306 | 1.436 | +0.44u |
| Czech Republic vs South Africa | 1–1 | Czech Republic | Draw | Miss | 0.9398 | 1.895 | -1.00u |
| Switzerland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina | 4–1 | Switzerland | Switzerland | Hit | 0.0711 | 1.612 | +0.61u |
| Canada vs Qatar | 6–0 | Canada | Canada | Hit | 0.0129 | 1.349 | +0.35u |
| Mexico vs South Korea | 1–0 | Mexico | Mexico | Hit | 0.1940 | 2.125 | +1.13u |
| USA vs Australia | 2–0 | USA | USA | Hit | 0.5499 | 1.661 | +0.66u |
| Scotland vs Morocco | 0–1 | Morocco | Morocco | Hit | 0.3012 | 1.73 | +0.73u |
| Brazil vs Haiti | 3–0 | Brazil | Brazil | Hit | 0.0421 | 1.14 | +0.14u |
| Turkey vs Paraguay | 0–1 | Turkey | Paraguay | Miss | 0.7741 | 2.116 | -1.00u |
| Netherlands vs Sweden | 5–1 | Netherlands | Netherlands | Hit | 0.1318 | 1.761 | +0.76u |
| Germany vs Ivory Coast | 2–1 | Germany | Germany | Hit | 0.1986 | 1.526 | +0.53u |
| Ecuador vs Curaçao | 0–0 | Ecuador | Draw | Miss | 1.6470 | 1.186 | -1.00u |
| Tunisia vs Japan | 0–4 | Japan | Japan | Hit | 0.1465 | 1.516 | +0.52u |
| Spain vs Saudi Arabia | 4–0 | Spain | Spain | Hit | 0.0031 | 1.125 | +0.12u |
| Belgium vs Iran | 0–0 | Belgium | Draw | Miss | 0.7924 | 1.454 | -1.00u |
| Uruguay vs Cape Verde | 2–2 | Uruguay | Draw | Miss | 1.3912 | 1.486 | -1.00u |
| New Zealand vs Egypt | 1–3 | Egypt | Egypt | Hit | 0.4404 | 1.634 | +0.63u |
| Argentina vs Austria | 2–0 | Argentina | Argentina | Hit | 0.0766 | 1.507 | +0.51u |
| France vs Iraq | 3–0 | France | France | Hit | 0.0243 | 1.113 | +0.11u |
| Norway vs Senegal | 3–2 | Norway | Norway | Hit | 0.4404 | 2.446 | +1.45u |
| Jordan vs Algeria | 1–2 | Algeria | Algeria | Hit | 0.3597 | 1.583 | +0.58u |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan | 5–0 | Portugal | Portugal | Hit | 0.1415 | 1.179 | +0.18u |
| England vs Ghana | 0–0 | England | Draw | Miss | 1.6986 | 1.218 | -1.00u |
| Panama vs Croatia | 0–1 | Croatia | Croatia | Hit | 0.3298 | 1.474 | +0.47u |
| Colombia vs DR Congo | 1–0 | Colombia | Colombia | Hit | 0.0681 | 1.592 | +0.59u |
| Switzerland vs Canada | 2–1 | Canada | Switzerland | Miss | 0.7622 | 3.561 | -1.00u |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar | 3–1 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | Bosnia-Herzegovina | Hit | 0.4380 | 1.436 | +0.44u |
| Morocco vs Haiti | 4–2 | Morocco | Morocco | Hit | 0.0564 | 1.206 | +0.21u |
| Scotland vs Brazil | 0–3 | Brazil | Brazil | Hit | 0.1543 | 1.381 | +0.38u |
| South Africa vs South Korea | 1–0 | South Korea | South Africa | Miss | 1.3284 | 1.73 | -1.00u |
| Czech Republic vs Mexico | 0–3 | Mexico | Mexico | Hit | 0.0527 | 1.789 | +0.79u |
| Curaçao vs Ivory Coast | 0–2 | Ivory Coast | Ivory Coast | Hit | 0.1623 | 1.211 | +0.21u |
| Ecuador vs Germany | 2–1 | Germany | Ecuador | Miss | 0.8494 | 1.729 | -1.00u |
| Tunisia vs Netherlands | 1–3 | Netherlands | Netherlands | Hit | 0.0447 | 1.135 | +0.14u |
| Japan vs Sweden | 1–1 | Japan | Draw | Miss | 1.1076 | 2.366 | -1.00u |
| Paraguay vs Australia | 0–0 | Australia | Draw | Miss | 0.7636 | 4.467 | -1.00u |
| Turkey vs USA | 3–2 | USA | Turkey | Miss | 1.0404 | 2.165 | -1.00u |
| Norway vs France | 1–4 | France | France | Hit | 0.2914 | 1.415 | +0.42u |
| Senegal vs Iraq | 5–0 | Senegal | Senegal | Hit | 0.2539 | 1.264 | +0.26u |
| Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia | 0–0 | Saudi Arabia | Draw | Miss | 0.7625 | 2.753 | -1.00u |
| Uruguay vs Spain | 0–1 | Spain | Spain | Hit | 0.1096 | 1.748 | +0.75u |
| Egypt vs Iran | 1–1 | Iran | Draw | Miss | 0.7795 | 3.655 | -1.00u |
| New Zealand vs Belgium | 1–5 | Belgium | Belgium | Hit | 0.1342 | 1.218 | +0.22u |
| Croatia vs Ghana | 2–1 | Croatia | Croatia | Hit | 0.1318 | 1.869 | +0.87u |
| Panama vs England | 0–2 | England | England | Hit | 0.0681 | 1.186 | +0.19u |
| Colombia vs Portugal | 0–0 | Colombia | Draw | Miss | 0.7692 | 4.277 | -1.00u |
| DR Congo vs Uzbekistan | 3–1 | Uzbekistan | DR Congo | Miss | 0.6546 | 5.743 | -1.00u |
| Algeria vs Austria | 3–3 | Austria | Draw | Miss | 0.7636 | 3.792 | -1.00u |
| Jordan vs Argentina | 1–3 | Argentina | Argentina | Hit | 0.0052 | 1.158 | +0.16u |
| South Africa vs Canada | 0–1 | Canada | Canada | Hit | 0.2648 | — | — |
| Brazil vs Japan | 2–1 | Brazil | Brazil | Hit | 0.3774 | 1.84 | +0.84u |
| Germany vs Paraguay | 1–1 | Germany | Draw | Miss | 0.8313 | 1.464 | -1.00u |
| Netherlands vs Morocco | 1–1 | Netherlands | Draw | Miss | 0.7675 | 2.454 | -1.00u |
| Ivory Coast vs Norway | 1–2 | Norway | Norway | Hit | 0.3153 | 2.203 | +1.20u |
| France vs Sweden | 3–0 | France | France | Hit | 0.0296 | 1.46 | +0.46u |
| Mexico vs Ecuador | 2–0 | Mexico | Mexico | Hit | 0.3215 | 2.313 | +1.31u |
| England vs DR Congo | 2–1 | England | England | Hit | 0.0750 | 1.334 | +0.33u |
| Belgium vs Senegal | 3–2 | Belgium | Belgium | Hit | 0.4699 | 2.103 | +1.10u |
| USA vs Bosnia-Herzegovina | 2–0 | USA | USA | Hit | 0.0766 | 1.62 | +0.62u |
| Spain vs Austria | 3–0 | Spain | Spain | Hit | 0.0719 | 1.345 | +0.34u |
| Portugal vs Croatia | 2–1 | Portugal | Portugal | Hit | 0.4002 | 1.747 | +0.75u |
| Switzerland vs Algeria | 2–0 | Switzerland | Switzerland | Hit | 0.4095 | 1.95 | +0.95u |
| Australia vs Egypt | 1–1 | Australia | Draw | Miss | 0.8007 | 3.765 | -1.00u |
| Argentina vs Cape Verde | 3–2 | Argentina | Argentina | Hit | 0.0035 | 1.14 | +0.14u |
| Colombia vs Ghana | 1–0 | Colombia | Colombia | Hit | 0.0304 | 1.491 | +0.49u |
| Canada vs Morocco | 0–3 | Morocco | Morocco | Hit | 0.2648 | 1.888 | +0.89u |
| Paraguay vs France | 0–1 | France | France | Hit | 0.0815 | 1.21 | +0.21u |
| Brazil vs Norway | 1–2 | Brazil | Norway | Miss | 0.9537 | 1.826 | -1.00u |
| Mexico vs England | 2–3 | Mexico | England | Miss | 0.6977 | 3.225 | -1.00u |
| Portugal vs Spain | 0–1 | Spain | Spain | Hit | 0.2914 | 2.054 | +1.05u |
| USA vs Belgium | 1–4 | USA | Belgium | Miss | 0.6489 | 2.652 | -1.00u |
| Argentina vs Egypt | 3–2 | Argentina | Argentina | Hit | 0.0308 | 1.363 | +0.36u |
| Switzerland vs Colombia | 0–0 | Colombia | Draw | Miss | 0.8137 | 2.434 | -1.00u |
| France vs Morocco | 2–0 | France | France | Hit | 0.2611 | 1.635 | +0.64u |
| Spain vs Belgium | 2–1 | Spain | Spain | Hit | 0.1820 | 1.706 | +0.71u |
| Norway vs England | 1–2 | England | England | Hit | 0.3597 | 1.9 | +0.90u |
| Argentina vs Switzerland | 3–1 | Argentina | Argentina | Hit | 0.1664 | 1.765 | +0.76u |
| France vs Spain | 0–2 | Spain | Spain | Hit | 0.5741 | 3.3 | +2.30u |
| England vs Argentina | 1–2 | Argentina | Argentina | Hit | 0.4189 | 3.209 | +2.21u |
| France vs England | 4–6 | France | England | Miss | 0.7533 | 1.8 | -1.00u |
| Spain vs Argentina | 1–0 | Spain | Spain | Hit | 0.5579 | 2.367 | +1.37u |
ROI columns use a flat 1u stake on the model pick and the best available pre-kickoff odds snapshot. A dash means no pre-kickoff market price was available, so that match is excluded from ROI.
Method
For each finished match, settlement uses the prediction probabilities that were generated before the result was known. The highest of home win, draw and away win is the model pick; final score determines the actual result. Brier score measures the full probability distribution, so it rewards honest probabilities rather than only the top pick.
Historical performance does not guarantee future results. Probabilities are information, not betting instructions.
FAQ
How are prediction results settled?
After a match is marked full time with a final score, we compare the model top pick before kick-off with the actual win, draw or loss result.
What counts as a hit?
A hit means the highest model probability was the actual result: home win, draw or away win. Correct score is tracked separately and is not required for hit rate.
Are unfinished matches included?
No. The live hit rate and Brier score only include finished matches with final scores.