FootyTips 
Algeria vs Austria 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Kansas City Stadium
Match Status
Algeria 3-3 Austria · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Austria narrowly favoured (37%). Overall probabilities: Algeria 34%, draw 29%, Austria 37%; model score 1-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 37%
model top outcome · 37%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Algeria 34% / Draw 29% / Austria 37%; expected goals 1.17-1.24; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 30.6%/38.6%/30.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Algeria 3-3 Austria. Model pick: Austria. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.7636 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Algeria win: 34%
- Draw: 29%
- Austria win: 37%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.17 - 1.24
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Algeria Elo 1857 · Austria Elo 1886
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-28. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Algeria and Austria have met 2 times: 0 Algeria wins, 1 draw, 1 Austria win.
- Algeria 3–3 Austria · 2026-06-27 · FIFA World Cup
- Algeria 0–2 Austria · 1982-06-21 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Group J fixture at Kansas City Stadium: Algeria 34%, the draw 29%, Austria 37%. With a modest Elo edge to Austria (1886 vs 1857), Austria are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Algeria vs Austria?
Austria are favoured at 37%. Algeria 34% / Draw 29% / Austria 37%.
What is the predicted score for Algeria vs Austria?
Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Algeria vs Austria?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 27.7% Algeria win, 45.9% draw, 26.4% Austria win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 30.6% / 38.6% / 30.8%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Algeria vs Austria have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Algeria vs Austria?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Algeria and Austria?
Algeria and Austria have met 2 times: 0 Algeria wins, 1 draw, 1 Austria win.