FootyTipsWho Will Win the Premier League?
Based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season (Elo + Poisson model). Updated as results come in.
| # | Team | Elo | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1997 | 62.3% | 98.4% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1965 | 29.6% | 93.7% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 1839 | 4.6% | 65.4% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 1838 | 1.8% | 45.9% | 0.1% |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 1806 | 0.5% | 21.3% | 0.8% |
| 6 | Chelsea | 1762 | 0.5% | 20.6% | 0.8% |
| 7 | Brentford | 1768 | 0.3% | 14.7% | 1.1% |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 1781 | 0.2% | 15.2% | 1.2% |
| 9 | Everton | 1713 | 0.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% |
| 10 | Leeds United | 1735 | 0.0% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| 11 | Manchester United | 1760 | 0.0% | 3.9% | 6.6% |
| 12 | Newcastle United | 1707 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 8.3% |
| 13 | Fulham | 1699 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 14.2% |
| 14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1673 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 11.2% |
Model credibility: in a two-season out-of-sample backtest (2024-25 & 2025-26, 760 matches) the same engine called 51.3% of results with Brier 0.6083, level with the de-vigged market baseline (51.4%).