FootyTipsWho Will Win the Premier League?
Based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season (Elo + Poisson model). Updated as results come in.
| # | Team | Elo | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1979 | 43.1% | 87.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1950 | 30.9% | 80.3% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Manchester United | 1847 | 7.0% | 43.0% | 0.6% |
| 4 | Liverpool | 1829 | 5.2% | 36.5% | 1.0% |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 1806 | 3.8% | 28.6% | 1.5% |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 1798 | 3.0% | 26.1% | 1.9% |
| 7 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 1756 | 1.1% | 14.9% | 3.9% |
| 8 | Brentford | 1748 | 1.0% | 12.8% | 4.9% |
| 9 | Chelsea | 1739 | 1.0% | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| 10 | Nottingham Forest | 1744 | 1.0% | 12.4% | 5.1% |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 1737 | 0.8% | 11.7% | 6.0% |
| 12 | Leeds United | 1724 | 0.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% |
| 13 | Fulham | 1723 | 0.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% |
| 14 | Everton | 1702 | 0.3% | 6.2% | 10.9% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 1700 | 0.3% | 6.0% | 11.7% |
| 16 | Sunderland | 1649 | 0.1% | 2.1% | 23.1% |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1642 | 0.1% | 1.9% | 25.9% |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1605 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 38.3% |
| 19 | Ipswich Town | 1566 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 53.2% |
Model credibility: in a two-season out-of-sample backtest (2024-25 & 2025-26, 760 matches) the same engine called 51.3% of results with Brier 0.6083, level with the de-vigged market baseline (51.4%).