FootyTipsWho Will Win the Premier League?
Based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season (Elo + Poisson model). Updated as results come in.
| # | Team | Elo | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1990 | 50.4% | 94.4% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1967 | 38.7% | 90.9% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Liverpool | 1823 | 2.7% | 36.3% | 0.7% |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1821 | 2.0% | 30.4% | 1.2% |
| 5 | Chelsea | 1764 | 1.2% | 23.5% | 1.7% |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 1795 | 1.0% | 21.7% | 2.0% |
| 7 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 1765 | 0.9% | 17.3% | 2.8% |
| 8 | Brentford | 1761 | 0.7% | 16.5% | 3.1% |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 1754 | 0.7% | 16.2% | 2.9% |
| 10 | Leeds United | 1737 | 0.5% | 13.3% | 3.9% |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 1771 | 0.4% | 12.3% | 4.6% |
| 12 | Everton | 1721 | 0.4% | 10.4% | 5.5% |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 1734 | 0.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% |
| 14 | Fulham | 1697 | 0.1% | 2.6% | 18.4% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 1675 | 0.1% | 3.6% | 14.9% |
| 16 | Sunderland | 1648 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 20.3% |
Model credibility: in a two-season out-of-sample backtest (2024-25 & 2025-26, 760 matches) the same engine called 51.3% of results with Brier 0.6083, level with the de-vigged market baseline (51.4%).