FootyTipsWho Will Win the Premier League?
Based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season (Elo + Poisson model). Updated as results come in.
| # | Team | Elo | Title | Top 4 | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1978 | 47.1% | 94.5% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Arsenal | 2000 | 45.1% | 95.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Liverpool | 1826 | 2.2% | 35.8% | 0.7% |
| 4 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 1780 | 1.3% | 31.1% | 0.8% |
| 5 | Manchester United | 1811 | 1.0% | 25.0% | 1.6% |
| 6 | Leeds United | 1757 | 0.9% | 21.6% | 1.9% |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 1792 | 0.6% | 19.2% | 2.3% |
| 8 | Brentford | 1759 | 0.5% | 18.7% | 2.1% |
| 9 | Chelsea | 1751 | 0.4% | 14.0% | 3.1% |
| 10 | Newcastle United | 1737 | 0.3% | 11.5% | 3.8% |
| 11 | Everton | 1721 | 0.3% | 10.5% | 4.3% |
| 12 | Nottingham Forest | 1744 | 0.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 1748 | 0.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 1672 | 0.0% | 2.4% | 19.4% |
| 15 | Fulham | 1689 | 0.0% | 2.2% | 20.3% |
| 16 | Sunderland | 1648 | 0.0% | 1.6% | 21.7% |
Model credibility: in a two-season out-of-sample backtest (2024-25 & 2025-26, 760 matches) the same engine called 51.3% of results with Brier 0.6083, level with the de-vigged market baseline (51.4%).