FootyTips 
Colombia vs DR Congo 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · Guadalajara Stadium
Match Status
Colombia 1-0 DR Congo · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Colombia to win at 79%. Overall probabilities: Colombia 79%, draw 15%, DR Congo 6%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 79%
model top outcome · 79%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Colombia 79% / Draw 15% / DR Congo 6%; expected goals 2.51-0.57; BTTS 40%; blended best estimate 69.9%/19.9%/10.2%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Colombia 1-0 DR Congo. Model pick: Colombia. Actual result: Colombia.
Brier contribution: 0.0681 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Colombia win: 79%
- Draw: 15%
- DR Congo win: 6%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.51 - 0.57
- Over 2.5: 59%
- Both teams to score: 40%
Model Ratings
Colombia Elo 2082 · DR Congo Elo 1800
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Colombia and DR Congo have met 1 time: 1 Colombia win, 0 draws, 0 DR Congo wins.
- Colombia 1–0 DR Congo · 2026-06-23 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs Colombia clear favourites at 79% in this Group K fixture at Guadalajara Stadium — Colombia 79%, the draw 15%, DR Congo 6%. A big Elo gap in Colombia's favour (2082 vs 1800), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 40%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Colombia vs DR Congo?
Colombia are favoured at 79%. Colombia 79% / Draw 15% / DR Congo 6%.
What is the predicted score for Colombia vs DR Congo?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Colombia vs DR Congo?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 62.5% Colombia win, 23.8% draw, 13.7% DR Congo win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 69.9% / 19.9% / 10.2%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Colombia vs DR Congo have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Colombia vs DR Congo?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colombia and DR Congo?
Colombia and DR Congo have met 1 time: 1 Colombia win, 0 draws, 0 DR Congo wins.