Belgium vs Iran Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · SoFi Stadium
Our model gives Belgium a 69% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 2–0.
Win Probability
- Belgium win: 69%
- Draw: 18%
- Iran win: 12%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 2–0
- Expected goals (model λ): 2.23 – 0.82
- Over 2.5 goals: 59%
- Both teams to score: 50%
Model Ratings
Belgium Elo 1940 · Iran Elo 1790
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Belgium are strong favourites at 69% against Iran (12%), with the draw at 18% and a 2–0 the likeliest scoreline. Belgian quality (1940 vs 1790) should be decisive.
Iran will defend in numbers and look to frustrate, a tactic that has troubled bigger sides before. Over 2.5 at 59%. A Belgian win would move them close to securing top spot in Group G.
FAQ
Who will win Belgium vs Iran?
Belgium are favoured with a 69% win probability. Belgium 69% / Draw 18% / Iran 12%.
What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Iran?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 2–0.
Will Belgium vs Iran have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Belgium vs Iran?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 50%.