Uruguay vs Spain Prediction

Jun 27, 12:00 AM UTC · Group Stage - 3 · Guadalajara Stadium

Match Status

Uruguay 0-1 Spain · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Spain to win at 73%. Overall probabilities: Uruguay 9%, draw 18%, Spain 73%; model score 0-2.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 73%

Uruguay 0-1 Spain result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Spain
model top outcome · 73%

0-2
model score forecast

55%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-26
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Uruguay 9% / Draw 18% / Spain 73%; expected goals 0.64-2.24; BTTS 43%; blended best estimate 13.0%/22.8%/64.2%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

Embed this prediction

Free for your site or blog — paste this HTML. The card refreshes automatically as our model updates.

<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/uruguay-vs-spain-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/uruguay-vs-spain.png" alt="Uruguay vs Spain prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Uruguay 0-1 Spain. Model pick: Spain. Actual result: Spain.

Brier contribution: 0.1096 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Uruguay win: 9%
Draw: 18%
Spain win: 73%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-2
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.64 - 2.24
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams to score: 43%

Model Ratings

Uruguay Elo 1921 · Spain Elo 2295

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-26. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Uruguay and Spain have met 11 times: 0 Uruguay wins, 5 draws, 6 Spain wins.

Uruguay 0–1 Spain · 2026-06-26 · FIFA World Cup
Spain 2–1 Uruguay · 2013-06-16 · Confederations Cup
Spain 3–1 Uruguay · 2013-02-06
Spain 2–0 Uruguay · 2005-08-17
Spain 2–2 Uruguay · 1995-01-18

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model makes Spain clear favourites at 73% in this Group H fixture at Guadalajara Stadium — Uruguay 9%, the draw 18%, Spain 73%. A big Elo gap in Spain's favour (2295 vs 1921), and the model score forecast is 0–2.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 43%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Uruguay vs Spain?

Spain are favoured at 73%. Uruguay 9% / Draw 18% / Spain 73%.

What is the predicted score for Uruguay vs Spain?

Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Uruguay vs Spain?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 16.4% Uruguay win, 26.3% draw, 57.3% Spain win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 13.0% / 22.8% / 64.2%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Uruguay vs Spain have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Uruguay vs Spain?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 43%.

What is the head-to-head record between Uruguay and Spain?

Uruguay and Spain have met 11 times: 0 Uruguay wins, 5 draws, 6 Spain wins.