FootyTips 
Australia vs Egypt 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Dallas Stadium
Match Status
Australia 1-1 Egypt · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Australia to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Australia 46%, draw 28%, Egypt 26%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%
model top outcome · 46%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Australia 46% / Draw 28% / Egypt 26%; expected goals 1.42-1.02; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 33.4%/31.9%/34.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Australia 1-1 Egypt. Model pick: Australia. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.8007 · settled 2026-08-19
Win Probability
- Australia win: 46%
- Draw: 28%
- Egypt win: 26%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.42 - 1.02
- Over 2.5: 44%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Australia Elo 1904 · Egypt Elo 1841
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Australia and Egypt have met 3 times: 0 Australia wins, 2 draws, 1 Egypt win.
- Australia 1–1 Egypt · 2026-07-03 · FIFA World Cup
- Egypt 3–0 Australia · 2010-11-17
- Australia 0–0 Egypt · 1987-06-19 · Korea Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has Australia clear favourites at 46% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Dallas Stadium — Australia 46%, the draw 28%, Egypt 26%. A modest Elo edge to Australia (1904 vs 1841), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Australia vs Egypt?
Australia are favoured at 46%. Australia 46% / Draw 28% / Egypt 26%.
What is the predicted score for Australia vs Egypt?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Australia vs Egypt?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 26.2% Australia win, 33.8% draw, 40.1% Egypt win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 33.4% / 31.9% / 34.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Australia vs Egypt have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Australia vs Egypt?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Australia and Egypt?
Australia and Egypt have met 3 times: 0 Australia wins, 2 draws, 1 Egypt win.