Norway vs Senegal Prediction

Jun 23, 12:00 AM UTC · Group Stage - 2 · New York/New Jersey Stadium

Match Status

Norway 3-2 Senegal · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Norway to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Norway 46%, draw 28%, Senegal 26%; model score 1-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%

Norway 3-2 Senegal result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Norway
model top outcome · 46%

1-1
model score forecast

44%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-11
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Norway 46% / Draw 28% / Senegal 26%; expected goals 1.42-1.01; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 43.4%/28.0%/28.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/norway-vs-senegal-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/norway-vs-senegal.png" alt="Norway vs Senegal prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Norway 3-2 Senegal. Model pick: Norway. Actual result: Norway.

Brier contribution: 0.4404 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Norway win: 46%
Draw: 28%
Senegal win: 26%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.42 - 1.01
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams to score: 49%

Model Ratings

Norway Elo 2022 · Senegal Elo 1874

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Norway and Senegal have met 2 times: 1 Norway win, 0 draws, 1 Senegal win.

Norway 3–2 Senegal · 2026-06-22 · FIFA World Cup
Senegal 2–1 Norway · 2006-03-01

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model makes Norway clear favourites at 46% in this Group I fixture at New York/New Jersey Stadium — Norway 46%, the draw 28%, Senegal 26%. A clear Elo edge to Norway (2022 vs 1874), and the model score forecast is 1–1.

Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Norway vs Senegal?

Norway are favoured at 46%. Norway 46% / Draw 28% / Senegal 26%.

What is the predicted score for Norway vs Senegal?

Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Norway vs Senegal?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 41.8% Norway win, 28.2% draw, 30.0% Senegal win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 43.4% / 28.0% / 28.6%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Norway vs Senegal have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Norway vs Senegal?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.

What is the head-to-head record between Norway and Senegal?

Norway and Senegal have met 2 times: 1 Norway win, 0 draws, 1 Senegal win.