Norway vs Senegal Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · MetLife Stadium
Our model gives Norway a 47% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Norway win: 47%
- Draw: 25%
- Senegal win: 28%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.57 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals: 51%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Norway Elo 1830 · Senegal Elo 1820
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Norway edge it at 47% against Senegal (28%), with the draw at 25%. The sides are closely rated (1830 vs 1820), and the model expects a tight 1–1 in what could be a decisive battle for second behind France.
Both teams to score at 54%. Norway's firepower against Senegal's athleticism is an intriguing matchup — this game may well determine which of two talented sides joins France in the knockouts.
FAQ
Who will win Norway vs Senegal?
Norway are favoured with a 47% win probability. Norway 47% / Draw 25% / Senegal 28%.
What is the predicted score for Norway vs Senegal?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Norway vs Senegal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Norway vs Senegal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.