Panama vs Croatia Prediction

Jun 23, 11:00 PM UTC · Group Stage - 2 · Toronto Stadium

Match Status

Panama 0-1 Croatia · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Croatia to win at 53%. Overall probabilities: Panama 21%, draw 26%, Croatia 53%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 53%

Panama 0-1 Croatia result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Croatia
model top outcome · 53%

0-1
model score forecast

46%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-11
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Panama 21% / Draw 26% / Croatia 53%; expected goals 0.90-1.60; BTTS 48%; blended best estimate 15.2%/23.0%/61.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/panama-vs-croatia-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/panama-vs-croatia.png" alt="Panama vs Croatia prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Panama 0-1 Croatia. Model pick: Croatia. Actual result: Croatia.

Brier contribution: 0.3298 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Panama win: 21%
Draw: 26%
Croatia win: 53%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.90 - 1.60
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams to score: 48%

Model Ratings

Panama Elo 1774 · Croatia Elo 1949

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Panama and Croatia have met 1 time: 0 Panama wins, 0 draws, 1 Croatia win.

Panama 0–1 Croatia · 2026-06-23 · FIFA World Cup

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

The model installs Croatia clear favourites at 53% in this Group L fixture at Toronto Stadium — Panama 21%, the draw 26%, Croatia 53%. A clear Elo edge to Croatia (1949 vs 1774), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 48%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Panama vs Croatia?

Croatia are favoured at 53%. Panama 21% / Draw 26% / Croatia 53%.

What is the predicted score for Panama vs Croatia?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Panama vs Croatia?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 12.1% Panama win, 20.7% draw, 67.2% Croatia win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 15.2% / 23.0% / 61.9%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Panama vs Croatia have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Panama vs Croatia?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 48%.

What is the head-to-head record between Panama and Croatia?

Panama and Croatia have met 1 time: 0 Panama wins, 0 draws, 1 Croatia win.