FootyTips 
England vs DR Congo 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Atlanta Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 16:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours England to win at 78%. Overall probabilities: England 78%, draw 15%, DR Congo 7%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 78%
model top outcome · 78%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: England win
Model 78.2% vs market 75.2%, edge +3.0pp.
Best available odds: 1.31 at vave · odds value +2%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for England win is 1.31 with vave. The model has it at 78.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 75.2% (+3.0pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T19:37:28.426Z.
This match value signal
Signal: DR Congo win
Model 6.7% vs market 7.2%, edge -0.5pp.
Best available odds: 13.7 at 1xbet · odds value -9%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for DR Congo win is 13.70 with 1xbet. The model has it at 6.7% versus a de-vigged market probability of 7.2% (-0.5pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T19:37:28.426Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 15.1% vs market 17.6%, edge -2.4pp.
Best available odds: 5.6 at 1xbet · odds value -15%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 5.60 with 1xbet. The model has it at 15.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 17.6% (-2.4pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T19:37:28.426Z.
| Source | England | Draw | DR Congo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 78.2% | 15.1% | 6.7% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet) | 75.2% | 17.6% | 7.2% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 76.4% | 16.6% | 7.0% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
| Sportsbook | England | Draw | DR Congo |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.28 | 5 | 11 |
| 1xbet | 1.309 | 5.6 | 13.7 |
| bcgame ↗ | 1.29 | 5.2 | 12 |
| cloudbet | 1.28 | 5.2 | 12 |
| vave | 1.31 | 5.4 | 12 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.31 | 5.45 | 12.25 |
| ★ Best | 1.31 vave | 5.6 1xbet | 13.7 1xbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
Citable facts: England 78% / Draw 15% / DR Congo 7%; expected goals 2.45-0.59; BTTS 41%; blended best estimate 76.4%/16.6%/7.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-06-30T19:37:28.426Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- England win: 78%
- Draw: 15%
- DR Congo win: 7%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.45 - 0.59
- Over 2.5: 59%
- Both teams to score: 41%
Model Ratings
England Elo 2107 · DR Congo Elo 1809
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes England clear favourites at 78% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Atlanta Stadium — England 78%, the draw 15%, DR Congo 7%. A big Elo gap in England's favour (2107 vs 1809), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 41%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win England vs DR Congo?
England are favoured at 78%. England 78% / Draw 15% / DR Congo 7%.
What is the predicted score for England vs DR Congo?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about England vs DR Congo?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet imply 75.2% England win, 17.6% draw, 7.2% DR Congo win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 76.4% / 16.6% / 7.0%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T19:37:28.426Z.
Will England vs DR Congo have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in England vs DR Congo?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 41%.