FootyTips 
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Seattle Stadium
Match Status
Bosnia-Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Bosnia-Herzegovina to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Bosnia-Herzegovina 46%, draw 28%, Qatar 26%; model score 1-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%
model top outcome · 46%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Bosnia-Herzegovina 46% / Draw 28% / Qatar 26%; expected goals 1.42-1.01; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 60.0%/22.5%/17.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Bosnia-Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar. Model pick: Bosnia-Herzegovina. Actual result: Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Brier contribution: 0.4380 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Bosnia-Herzegovina win: 46%
- Draw: 28%
- Qatar win: 26%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.42 - 1.01
- Over 2.5: 44%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Bosnia-Herzegovina Elo 1667 · Qatar Elo 1539
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-24. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar have met 3 times: 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina win, 1 draw, 1 Qatar win.
- Bosnia-Herzegovina 3–1 Qatar · 2026-06-24 · FIFA World Cup
- Bosnia-Herzegovina 1–1 Qatar · 2010-08-10
- Qatar 2–0 Bosnia-Herzegovina · 2000-01-24
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has Bosnia-Herzegovina clear favourites at 46% in this Group B fixture at Seattle Stadium — Bosnia-Herzegovina 46%, the draw 28%, Qatar 26%. A clear Elo edge to Bosnia-Herzegovina (1667 vs 1539), and the model score forecast is 1–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar?
Bosnia-Herzegovina are favoured at 46%. Bosnia-Herzegovina 46% / Draw 28% / Qatar 26%.
What is the predicted score for Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar?
Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 68.5% Bosnia-Herzegovina win, 18.7% draw, 12.7% Qatar win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 60.0% / 22.5% / 17.5%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Qatar?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar?
Bosnia-Herzegovina and Qatar have met 3 times: 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina win, 1 draw, 1 Qatar win.