FootyTips 
Portugal vs Spain 
Prediction
· Round of 16 · Dallas Stadium
Match Status
Portugal 0-1 Spain · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Spain to win at 56%. Overall probabilities: Portugal 19%, draw 25%, Spain 56%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 56%
model top outcome · 56%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Portugal 19% / Draw 25% / Spain 56%; expected goals 0.86-1.67; BTTS 47%; blended best estimate 21.6%/26.2%/52.2%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Portugal 0-1 Spain. Model pick: Spain. Actual result: Spain.
Brier contribution: 0.2914 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Portugal win: 19%
- Draw: 25%
- Spain win: 56%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.86 - 1.67
- Over 2.5: 46%
- Both teams to score: 47%
Model Ratings
Portugal Elo 2062 · Spain Elo 2295
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Portugal and Spain have met 43 times: 8 Portugal wins, 18 draws, 17 Spain wins.
- Portugal 0–1 Spain · 2026-07-06 · FIFA World Cup
- Portugal 2–2 Spain · 2025-06-08 · UEFA Nations League
- Portugal 0–1 Spain · 2022-09-27 · UEFA Nations League
- Spain 1–1 Portugal · 2022-06-02 · UEFA Nations League
- Spain 0–0 Portugal · 2021-06-04
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates Spain clear favourites at 56% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Dallas Stadium — Portugal 19%, the draw 25%, Spain 56%. A big Elo gap in Spain's favour (2295 vs 2062), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 47%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Portugal vs Spain?
Spain are favoured at 56%. Portugal 19% / Draw 25% / Spain 56%.
What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Spain?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Portugal vs Spain?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 23.6% Portugal win, 26.8% draw, 49.6% Spain win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 21.6% / 26.2% / 52.2%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Portugal vs Spain have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Portugal vs Spain?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portugal and Spain?
Portugal and Spain have met 43 times: 8 Portugal wins, 18 draws, 17 Spain wins.