France vs Sweden Prediction

Jun 30, 09:00 PM UTC · Round of 32 · New York/New Jersey Stadium

Match Status

France 3-0 Sweden · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours France to win at 87%. Overall probabilities: France 87%, draw 10%, Sweden 3%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 87%

France 3-0 Sweden result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

France
model top outcome · 87%

2-0
model score forecast

67%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-30
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: France 87% / Draw 10% / Sweden 3%; expected goals 2.97-0.49; BTTS 37%; blended best estimate 75.9%/16.1%/7.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/france-vs-sweden-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/france-vs-sweden.png" alt="France vs Sweden prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score France 3-0 Sweden. Model pick: France. Actual result: France.

Brier contribution: 0.0296 · settled 2026-08-19

Win Probability

France win: 87%
Draw: 10%
Sweden win: 3%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.97 - 0.49
Over 2.5: 67%
Both teams to score: 37%

Model Ratings

France Elo 2141 · Sweden Elo 1800

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-30. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

France and Sweden have met 24 times: 13 France wins, 5 draws, 6 Sweden wins.

France 3–0 Sweden · 2026-06-30 · FIFA World Cup
France 4–2 Sweden · 2020-11-17 · UEFA Nations League
Sweden 0–1 France · 2020-09-05 · UEFA Nations League
Sweden 2–1 France · 2017-06-09 · FIFA World Cup qualification
France 2–1 Sweden · 2016-11-11 · FIFA World Cup qualification

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model has France clear favourites at 87% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at New York/New Jersey Stadium — France 87%, the draw 10%, Sweden 3%. A big Elo gap in France's favour (2141 vs 1800), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 37%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win France vs Sweden?

France are favoured at 87%. France 87% / Draw 10% / Sweden 3%.

What is the predicted score for France vs Sweden?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about France vs Sweden?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 66.0% France win, 21.0% draw, 13.0% Sweden win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 75.9% / 16.1% / 7.9%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will France vs Sweden have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in France vs Sweden?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 37%.

What is the head-to-head record between France and Sweden?

France and Sweden have met 24 times: 13 France wins, 5 draws, 6 Sweden wins.