FootyTips 
France vs Sweden 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · New York/New Jersey Stadium
Match Status
France 3-0 Sweden · Live
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours France to win at 87%. Overall probabilities: France 87%, draw 10%, Sweden 3%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 87%
model top outcome · 87%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No market odds connected yet. FootyTips shows model probabilities for this match, but no value signal is shown until a licensed odds snapshot is imported.
Citable facts: France 87% / Draw 10% / Sweden 3%; expected goals 2.97-0.49; BTTS 37%; blended best estimate 75.9%/16.1%/7.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- France win: 87%
- Draw: 10%
- Sweden win: 3%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.97 - 0.49
- Over 2.5: 67%
- Both teams to score: 37%
Model Ratings
France Elo 2187 · Sweden Elo 1810
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-30. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has France clear favourites at 87% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at New York/New Jersey Stadium — France 87%, the draw 10%, Sweden 3%. A big Elo gap in France's favour (2187 vs 1810), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 37%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win France vs Sweden?
France are favoured at 87%. France 87% / Draw 10% / Sweden 3%.
What is the predicted score for France vs Sweden?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about France vs Sweden?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 66.0% France win, 21.0% draw, 13.0% Sweden win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 75.9% / 16.1% / 7.9%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will France vs Sweden have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in France vs Sweden?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 37%.