Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Prediction

Jun 15, 10:00 PM UTC · Group Stage - 1 · Miami Stadium

Match Status

Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay · FT · Miss

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Uruguay to win at 76%. Overall probabilities: Saudi Arabia 8%, draw 16%, Uruguay 76%; model score 0-2.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 76%

Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Uruguay
model top outcome · 76%

0-2
model score forecast

57%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-11
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Saudi Arabia 8% / Draw 16% / Uruguay 76%; expected goals 0.61-2.35; BTTS 42%; blended best estimate 9.7%/19.6%/70.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

Embed this prediction

Free for your site or blog — paste this HTML. The card refreshes automatically as our model updates.

<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/saudi-arabia-vs-uruguay.png" alt="Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay. Model pick: Uruguay. Actual result: Draw.

Brier contribution: 1.2829 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Saudi Arabia win: 8%
Draw: 16%
Uruguay win: 76%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-2
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.61 - 2.35
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams to score: 42%

Model Ratings

Saudi Arabia Elo 1705 · Uruguay Elo 1921

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Saudi Arabia and Uruguay have met 4 times: 1 Saudi Arabia win, 2 draws, 1 Uruguay win.

Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay · 2026-06-15 · FIFA World Cup
Uruguay 1–0 Saudi Arabia · 2018-06-20 · FIFA World Cup
Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay · 2014-10-10
Saudi Arabia 3–2 Uruguay · 2002-03-27

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

The model installs Uruguay clear favourites at 76% in this Group H fixture at Miami Stadium — Saudi Arabia 8%, the draw 16%, Uruguay 76%. A big Elo gap in Uruguay's favour (1921 vs 1705), and the model score forecast is 0–2.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 42%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay?

Uruguay are favoured at 76%. Saudi Arabia 8% / Draw 16% / Uruguay 76%.

What is the predicted score for Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay?

Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 11.4% Saudi Arabia win, 21.9% draw, 66.7% Uruguay win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 9.7% / 19.6% / 70.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 42%.

What is the head-to-head record between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay?

Saudi Arabia and Uruguay have met 4 times: 1 Saudi Arabia win, 2 draws, 1 Uruguay win.