Belgium vs Senegal Prediction

Jul 1, 08:00 PM UTC · Round of 32 · Seattle Stadium

Match Status

Belgium 3-2 Senegal · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Belgium to win at 44%. Overall probabilities: Belgium 44%, draw 28%, Senegal 28%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 44%

Belgium 3-2 Senegal result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Belgium
model top outcome · 44%

1-0
model score forecast

44%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-07-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Belgium 44% / Draw 28% / Senegal 28%; expected goals 1.38-1.04; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 45.7%/28.3%/25.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/belgium-vs-senegal-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/belgium-vs-senegal.png" alt="Belgium vs Senegal prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Belgium 3-2 Senegal. Model pick: Belgium. Actual result: Belgium.

Brier contribution: 0.4699 · settled 2026-08-19

Win Probability

Belgium win: 44%
Draw: 28%
Senegal win: 28%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.38 - 1.04
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams to score: 49%

Model Ratings

Belgium Elo 2022 · Senegal Elo 1874

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Belgium and Senegal have met 1 time: 1 Belgium win, 0 draws, 0 Senegal wins.

Belgium 3–2 Senegal · 2026-07-01 · FIFA World Cup

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model rates Belgium clear favourites at 44% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Seattle Stadium — Belgium 44%, the draw 28%, Senegal 28%. A clear Elo edge to Belgium (2022 vs 1874), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Belgium vs Senegal?

Belgium are favoured at 44%. Belgium 44% / Draw 28% / Senegal 28%.

What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Senegal?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Belgium vs Senegal?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 46.8% Belgium win, 28.5% draw, 24.7% Senegal win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 45.7% / 28.3% / 25.9%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Belgium vs Senegal have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Belgium vs Senegal?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.

What is the head-to-head record between Belgium and Senegal?

Belgium and Senegal have met 1 time: 1 Belgium win, 0 draws, 0 Senegal wins.