FootyTips 
Belgium vs Senegal 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Seattle Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 20:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Belgium to win at 44%. Overall probabilities: Belgium 44%, draw 28%, Senegal 28%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 44%
model top outcome · 44%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Senegal win
Model 27.9% vs market 27.0%, edge +0.9pp.
Best available odds: 3.65 at vave · odds value +2%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Senegal win is 3.65 with vave. The model has it at 27.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 27.0% (+0.9pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T22:01:32.874Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 28.0% vs market 28.0%, edge +0.0pp.
Best available odds: 3.565 at 1xbet · odds value -0%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.56 with 1xbet. The model has it at 28.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 28.0% (+0.0pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T22:01:32.874Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Belgium win
Model 44.0% vs market 45.0%, edge -0.9pp.
Best available odds: 2.201 at 1xbet · odds value -3%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Belgium win is 2.20 with 1xbet. The model has it at 44.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 45.0% (-0.9pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T22:01:32.874Z.
| Source | Belgium | Draw | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 44.0% | 28.0% | 27.9% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet) | 45.0% | 28.0% | 27.0% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 44.6% | 28.0% | 27.4% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
| Sportsbook | Belgium | Draw | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.13 | 3.25 | 3.55 |
| 1xbet | 2.201 | 3.565 | 3.565 |
| bcgame ↗ | 2.16 | 3.25 | 3.55 |
| cloudbet | 2.17 | 3.25 | 3.55 |
| vave | 2.19 | 3.35 | 3.65 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.19 | 3.35 | 3.65 |
| ★ Best | 2.201 1xbet | 3.565 1xbet | 3.65 vave |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
Citable facts: Belgium 44% / Draw 28% / Senegal 28%; expected goals 1.38-1.04; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 44.6%/28.0%/27.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-06-30T22:01:32.874Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Belgium win: 44%
- Draw: 28%
- Senegal win: 28%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.38 - 1.04
- Over 2.5: 44%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Belgium Elo 1957 · Senegal Elo 1899
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Belgium clear favourites at 44% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Seattle Stadium — Belgium 44%, the draw 28%, Senegal 28%. A modest Elo edge to Belgium (1957 vs 1899), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Belgium vs Senegal?
Belgium are favoured at 44%. Belgium 44% / Draw 28% / Senegal 28%.
What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Senegal?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Belgium vs Senegal?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet imply 45.0% Belgium win, 28.0% draw, 27.0% Senegal win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 44.6% / 28.0% / 27.4%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T22:01:32.874Z.
Will Belgium vs Senegal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Belgium vs Senegal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.