FootyTips 
Canada vs Qatar 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · BC Place Vancouver
Match Status
Canada 6-0 Qatar · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Canada to win at 91%. Overall probabilities: Canada 91%, draw 7%, Qatar 2%; model score 3-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 91%
model top outcome · 91%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Canada 91% / Draw 7% / Qatar 2%; expected goals 3.42-0.42; BTTS 33%; blended best estimate 82.5%/12.5%/5.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Canada 6-0 Qatar. Model pick: Canada. Actual result: Canada.
Brier contribution: 0.0129 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Canada win: 91%
- Draw: 7%
- Qatar win: 2%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 3-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 3.42 - 0.42
- Over 2.5: 73%
- Both teams to score: 33%
Model Ratings
Canada Elo 1841 · Qatar Elo 1539
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Canada and Qatar have met 2 times: 2 Canada wins, 0 draws, 0 Qatar wins.
- Canada 6–0 Qatar · 2026-06-18 · FIFA World Cup
- Canada 2–0 Qatar · 2022-09-23
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs Canada clear favourites at 91% in this Group B fixture at BC Place Vancouver — Canada 91%, the draw 7%, Qatar 2%. A big Elo gap in Canada's favour (1841 vs 1539), and the model score forecast is 3–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 33%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Canada vs Qatar?
Canada are favoured at 91%. Canada 91% / Draw 7% / Qatar 2%.
What is the predicted score for Canada vs Qatar?
Our model score forecast is 3-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Canada vs Qatar?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 73.4% Canada win, 17.7% draw, 8.9% Qatar win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 82.5% / 12.5% / 5.0%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Canada vs Qatar have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Canada vs Qatar?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Canada and Qatar?
Canada and Qatar have met 2 times: 2 Canada wins, 0 draws, 0 Qatar wins.