FootyTips 
New Zealand vs Egypt 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · BC Place Vancouver
Match Status
New Zealand 1-3 Egypt · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Egypt to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: New Zealand 26%, draw 28%, Egypt 46%; model score 1-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%
model top outcome · 46%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: New Zealand 26% / Draw 28% / Egypt 46%; expected goals 1.01-1.42; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 19.7%/25.6%/54.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score New Zealand 1-3 Egypt. Model pick: Egypt. Actual result: Egypt.
Brier contribution: 0.4404 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- New Zealand win: 26%
- Draw: 28%
- Egypt win: 46%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.01 - 1.42
- Over 2.5: 44%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
New Zealand Elo 1673 · Egypt Elo 1841
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
New Zealand and Egypt have met 4 times: 0 New Zealand wins, 1 draw, 3 Egypt wins.
- New Zealand 1–3 Egypt · 2026-06-21 · FIFA World Cup
- Egypt 1–0 New Zealand · 2024-03-22 · FIFA Series
- Egypt 1–0 New Zealand · 1999-07-15
- Egypt 1–1 New Zealand · 1999-07-10
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has Egypt clear favourites at 46% in this Group G fixture at BC Place Vancouver — New Zealand 26%, the draw 28%, Egypt 46%. A clear Elo edge to Egypt (1841 vs 1673), and the model score forecast is 1–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win New Zealand vs Egypt?
Egypt are favoured at 46%. New Zealand 26% / Draw 28% / Egypt 46%.
What is the predicted score for New Zealand vs Egypt?
Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about New Zealand vs Egypt?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 15.9% New Zealand win, 23.8% draw, 60.3% Egypt win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 19.7% / 25.6% / 54.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will New Zealand vs Egypt have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in New Zealand vs Egypt?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between New Zealand and Egypt?
New Zealand and Egypt have met 4 times: 0 New Zealand wins, 1 draw, 3 Egypt wins.