Scotland vs Morocco Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · Gillette Stadium
Our model gives Morocco a 43% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Scotland win: 31%
- Draw: 25%
- Morocco win: 43%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.22 – 1.49
- Over 2.5 goals: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Scotland Elo 1800 · Morocco Elo 1890
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Morocco edge this important Group C clash at 43%, with Scotland at 31% and the draw at 25%. Morocco's rating (1890 vs 1800) and tournament pedigree give them the nod, but the model still lands on a 1–1 draw most often.
This may well decide who joins Brazil in the knockouts. Both teams to score is high at 55%. Scotland's set-piece threat against Morocco's defensive solidity is a key battleground — a single goal could prove decisive for qualification.
FAQ
Who will win Scotland vs Morocco?
Morocco are favoured with a 43% win probability. Scotland 31% / Draw 25% / Morocco 43%.
What is the predicted score for Scotland vs Morocco?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Scotland vs Morocco have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Scotland vs Morocco?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.