FootyTips 
DR Congo vs Uzbekistan 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Atlanta Stadium
Match Status
DR Congo 3-1 Uzbekistan · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Uzbekistan narrowly favoured (37%). Overall probabilities: DR Congo 34%, draw 29%, Uzbekistan 37%; model score 1-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 37%
model top outcome · 37%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: DR Congo 34% / Draw 29% / Uzbekistan 37%; expected goals 1.17-1.23; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 47.7%/27.2%/25.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score DR Congo 3-1 Uzbekistan. Model pick: Uzbekistan. Actual result: DR Congo.
Brier contribution: 0.6546 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- DR Congo win: 34%
- Draw: 29%
- Uzbekistan win: 37%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.17 - 1.23
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
DR Congo Elo 1800 · Uzbekistan Elo 1728
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-27. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
DR Congo and Uzbekistan have met 1 time: 1 DR Congo win, 0 draws, 0 Uzbekistan wins.
- DR Congo 3–1 Uzbekistan · 2026-06-27 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Group K fixture at Atlanta Stadium: DR Congo 34%, the draw 29%, Uzbekistan 37%. With a modest Elo edge to DR Congo (1800 vs 1728), Uzbekistan are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win DR Congo vs Uzbekistan?
Uzbekistan are favoured at 37%. DR Congo 34% / Draw 29% / Uzbekistan 37%.
What is the predicted score for DR Congo vs Uzbekistan?
Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about DR Congo vs Uzbekistan?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 56.6% DR Congo win, 24.9% draw, 18.4% Uzbekistan win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 47.7% / 27.2% / 25.1%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will DR Congo vs Uzbekistan have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in DR Congo vs Uzbekistan?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between DR Congo and Uzbekistan?
DR Congo and Uzbekistan have met 1 time: 1 DR Congo win, 0 draws, 0 Uzbekistan wins.