France vs Senegal Prediction

Jun 16, 07:00 PM UTC · Group Stage - 1 · New York/New Jersey Stadium

Match Status

France 3-1 Senegal · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours France to win at 68%. Overall probabilities: France 68%, draw 20%, Senegal 12%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 68%

France 3-1 Senegal result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

France
model top outcome · 68%

2-0
model score forecast

52%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-11
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: France 68% / Draw 20% / Senegal 12%; expected goals 2.04-0.70; BTTS 44%; blended best estimate 66.0%/21.2%/12.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/france-vs-senegal-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/france-vs-senegal.png" alt="France vs Senegal prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score France 3-1 Senegal. Model pick: France. Actual result: France.

Brier contribution: 0.1543 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

France win: 68%
Draw: 20%
Senegal win: 12%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.04 - 0.70
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams to score: 44%

Model Ratings

France Elo 2191 · Senegal Elo 1874

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

France and Senegal have met 3 times: 1 France win, 0 draws, 2 Senegal wins.

France 3–1 Senegal · 2026-06-16 · FIFA World Cup
France 0–1 Senegal · 2002-05-31 · FIFA World Cup
Senegal 2–0 France · 1963-04-18 · African Friendship Games

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

The model installs France clear favourites at 68% in this Group I fixture at New York/New Jersey Stadium — France 68%, the draw 20%, Senegal 12%. A big Elo gap in France's favour (2191 vs 1874), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 44%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win France vs Senegal?

France are favoured at 68%. France 68% / Draw 20% / Senegal 12%.

What is the predicted score for France vs Senegal?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about France vs Senegal?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 64.4% France win, 21.8% draw, 13.8% Senegal win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 66.0% / 21.2% / 12.8%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will France vs Senegal have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in France vs Senegal?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 44%.

What is the head-to-head record between France and Senegal?

France and Senegal have met 3 times: 1 France win, 0 draws, 2 Senegal wins.