FootyTips 
South Africa vs Canada 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Los Angeles Stadium
Match Status
South Africa 0-1 Canada · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Canada to win at 58%. Overall probabilities: South Africa 17%, draw 25%, Canada 58%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 58%
model top outcome · 58%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: South Africa 17% / Draw 25% / Canada 58%; expected goals 0.83-1.73; BTTS 47%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score South Africa 0-1 Canada. Model pick: Canada. Actual result: Canada.
Brier contribution: 0.2648 · settled 2026-08-19
Win Probability
- South Africa win: 17%
- Draw: 25%
- Canada win: 58%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.83 - 1.73
- Over 2.5: 47%
- Both teams to score: 47%
Model Ratings
South Africa Elo 1684 · Canada Elo 1841
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-28. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
South Africa and Canada have met 2 times: 1 South Africa win, 0 draws, 1 Canada win.
- South Africa 0–1 Canada · 2026-06-28 · FIFA World Cup
- South Africa 2–0 Canada · 2007-11-20
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs Canada clear favourites at 58% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Los Angeles Stadium — South Africa 17%, the draw 25%, Canada 58%. A clear Elo edge to Canada (1841 vs 1684), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 47%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win South Africa vs Canada?
Canada are favoured at 58%. South Africa 17% / Draw 25% / Canada 58%.
What is the predicted score for South Africa vs Canada?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will South Africa vs Canada have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in South Africa vs Canada?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between South Africa and Canada?
South Africa and Canada have met 2 times: 1 South Africa win, 0 draws, 1 Canada win.