Paraguay vs France Prediction

Jul 4, 09:00 PM UTC · Round of 16 · Philadelphia Stadium

Match Status

Paraguay 0-1 France · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours France to win at 77%. Overall probabilities: Paraguay 7%, draw 16%, France 77%; model score 0-2.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 77%

Paraguay 0-1 France result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

France
model top outcome · 77%

0-2
model score forecast

58%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-07-04
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Paraguay 7% / Draw 16% / France 77%; expected goals 0.60-2.41; BTTS 41%; blended best estimate 6.2%/14.3%/79.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/paraguay-vs-france-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/paraguay-vs-france.png" alt="Paraguay vs France prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Paraguay 0-1 France. Model pick: France. Actual result: France.

Brier contribution: 0.0815 · settled 2026-08-19

Win Probability

Paraguay win: 7%
Draw: 16%
France win: 77%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-2
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.60 - 2.41
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams to score: 41%

Model Ratings

Paraguay Elo 1899 · France Elo 2141

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-04. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Paraguay and France have met 6 times: 0 Paraguay wins, 2 draws, 4 France wins.

Paraguay 0–1 France · 2026-07-04 · FIFA World Cup
France 5–0 Paraguay · 2017-06-02
France 1–1 Paraguay · 2014-06-01
France 0–0 Paraguay · 2008-05-31
France 1–0 Paraguay · 1998-06-28 · FIFA World Cup

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model rates France clear favourites at 77% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Philadelphia Stadium — Paraguay 7%, the draw 16%, France 77%. A big Elo gap in France's favour (2141 vs 1899), and the model score forecast is 0–2.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 41%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Paraguay vs France?

France are favoured at 77%. Paraguay 7% / Draw 16% / France 77%.

What is the predicted score for Paraguay vs France?

Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Paraguay vs France?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 5.6% Paraguay win, 13.4% draw, 81.0% France win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 6.2% / 14.3% / 79.6%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Paraguay vs France have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Paraguay vs France?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 41%.

What is the head-to-head record between Paraguay and France?

Paraguay and France have met 6 times: 0 Paraguay wins, 2 draws, 4 France wins.