Canada vs Morocco Prediction

Jul 4, 05:00 PM UTC · Round of 16 · Houston Stadium

Match Status

Canada 0-3 Morocco · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Morocco to win at 58%. Overall probabilities: Canada 17%, draw 25%, Morocco 58%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 58%

Canada 0-3 Morocco result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Morocco
model top outcome · 58%

0-1
model score forecast

47%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-07-04
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Canada 17% / Draw 25% / Morocco 58%; expected goals 0.83-1.73; BTTS 47%; blended best estimate 17.7%/26.5%/55.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/canada-vs-morocco-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/canada-vs-morocco.png" alt="Canada vs Morocco prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Canada 0-3 Morocco. Model pick: Morocco. Actual result: Morocco.

Brier contribution: 0.2648 · settled 2026-08-19

Win Probability

Canada win: 17%
Draw: 25%
Morocco win: 58%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.83 - 1.73
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams to score: 47%

Model Ratings

Canada Elo 1841 · Morocco Elo 2028

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-04. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Canada and Morocco have met 5 times: 0 Canada wins, 1 draw, 4 Morocco wins.

Canada 0–3 Morocco · 2026-07-04 · FIFA World Cup
Canada 1–2 Morocco · 2022-12-01 · FIFA World Cup
Morocco 4–0 Canada · 2016-10-11
Canada 1–1 Morocco · 1994-06-01
Morocco 3–2 Canada · 1984-10-24

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

The model installs Morocco clear favourites at 58% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Houston Stadium — Canada 17%, the draw 25%, Morocco 58%. A clear Elo edge to Morocco (2028 vs 1841), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 47%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Canada vs Morocco?

Morocco are favoured at 58%. Canada 17% / Draw 25% / Morocco 58%.

What is the predicted score for Canada vs Morocco?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Canada vs Morocco?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 17.9% Canada win, 27.8% draw, 54.2% Morocco win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 17.7% / 26.5% / 55.8%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Canada vs Morocco have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Canada vs Morocco?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 47%.

What is the head-to-head record between Canada and Morocco?

Canada and Morocco have met 5 times: 0 Canada wins, 1 draw, 4 Morocco wins.