FootyTips 
Canada vs Morocco 
Prediction
· Round of 16 · Houston Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 17:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Morocco to win at 58%. Overall probabilities: Canada 17%, draw 25%, Morocco 58%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 58%
model top outcome · 58%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Morocco win
Model 58.2% vs market 52.6%, edge +5.5pp.
Best available odds: 1.871 at 1xbet · odds value +9%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Lean value: the current top sportsbook price for Morocco win is 1.87 with 1xbet. The model has it at 58.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 52.6% (+5.5pp edge).
Small positive edge; worth monitoring, not a must-bet signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T23:04:24.487Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Canada win
Model 17.4% vs market 20.0%, edge -2.6pp.
Best available odds: 4.93 at 1xbet · odds value -14%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Canada win is 4.93 with 1xbet. The model has it at 17.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 20.0% (-2.6pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T23:04:24.487Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 24.4% vs market 27.4%, edge -3.0pp.
Best available odds: 3.595 at 1xbet · odds value -12%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.60 with 1xbet. The model has it at 24.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 27.4% (-3.0pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T23:04:24.487Z.
| Source | Canada | Draw | Morocco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 17.4% | 24.4% | 58.2% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet) | 20.0% | 27.4% | 52.6% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 18.9% | 26.2% | 54.9% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Citable facts: Canada 17% / Draw 25% / Morocco 58%; expected goals 0.83-1.73; BTTS 47%; blended best estimate 18.9%/26.2%/54.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-06-30T23:04:24.487Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Canada win: 17%
- Draw: 25%
- Morocco win: 58%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.83 - 1.73
- Over 2.5: 47%
- Both teams to score: 47%
Model Ratings
Canada Elo 1871 · Morocco Elo 2023
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-30. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs Morocco clear favourites at 58% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Houston Stadium — Canada 17%, the draw 25%, Morocco 58%. A clear Elo edge to Morocco (2023 vs 1871), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 47%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Canada vs Morocco?
Morocco are favoured at 58%. Canada 17% / Draw 25% / Morocco 58%.
What is the predicted score for Canada vs Morocco?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Canada vs Morocco?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet imply 20.0% Canada win, 27.4% draw, 52.6% Morocco win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 18.9% / 26.2% / 54.9%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-06-30T23:04:24.487Z.
Will Canada vs Morocco have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Canada vs Morocco?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 47%.