FootyTips 
Mexico vs England 
Prediction
· Round of 16 · Mexico City Stadium
Match Status
Mexico 2-3 England · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Mexico narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Mexico 39%, draw 29%, England 32%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Mexico 39% / Draw 29% / England 32%; expected goals 1.28-1.13; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 34.5%/29.9%/35.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Mexico 2-3 England. Model pick: Mexico. Actual result: England.
Brier contribution: 0.6977 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Mexico win: 39%
- Draw: 29%
- England win: 32%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.28 - 1.13
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Mexico Elo 2010 · England Elo 2146
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-05. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Mexico and England have met 11 times: 2 Mexico wins, 1 draw, 8 England wins.
- Mexico 2–3 England · 2026-07-05 · FIFA World Cup
- England 3–1 Mexico · 2010-05-24
- England 4–0 Mexico · 2001-05-25
- England 2–0 Mexico · 1997-03-29
- Mexico 0–3 England · 1986-05-17
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched World Cup 2026 fixture at Mexico City Stadium: Mexico 39%, the draw 29%, England 32%. With a clear Elo edge to England (2146 vs 2010), Mexico are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Mexico vs England?
Mexico are favoured at 39%. Mexico 39% / Draw 29% / England 32%.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs England?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Mexico vs England?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 31.4% Mexico win, 30.7% draw, 37.9% England win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 34.5% / 29.9% / 35.6%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Mexico vs England have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Mexico vs England?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mexico and England?
Mexico and England have met 11 times: 2 Mexico wins, 1 draw, 8 England wins.