FootyTips 
Colombia vs Ghana 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Kansas City Stadium
Match Status
Colombia 1-0 Ghana · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Colombia to win at 86%. Overall probabilities: Colombia 86%, draw 10%, Ghana 4%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 86%
model top outcome · 86%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Colombia 86% / Draw 10% / Ghana 4%; expected goals 2.95-0.49; BTTS 37%; blended best estimate 76.3%/16.4%/7.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Colombia 1-0 Ghana. Model pick: Colombia. Actual result: Colombia.
Brier contribution: 0.0304 · settled 2026-08-19
Win Probability
- Colombia win: 86%
- Draw: 10%
- Ghana win: 4%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.95 - 0.49
- Over 2.5: 67%
- Both teams to score: 37%
Model Ratings
Colombia Elo 2082 · Ghana Elo 1701
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-04. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Colombia and Ghana have met 1 time: 1 Colombia win, 0 draws, 0 Ghana wins.
- Colombia 1–0 Ghana · 2026-07-03 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates Colombia clear favourites at 86% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Kansas City Stadium — Colombia 86%, the draw 10%, Ghana 4%. A big Elo gap in Colombia's favour (2082 vs 1701), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 37%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Colombia vs Ghana?
Colombia are favoured at 86%. Colombia 86% / Draw 10% / Ghana 4%.
What is the predicted score for Colombia vs Ghana?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Colombia vs Ghana?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 67.1% Colombia win, 21.6% draw, 11.3% Ghana win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 76.3% / 16.4% / 7.3%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Colombia vs Ghana have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Colombia vs Ghana?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colombia and Ghana?
Colombia and Ghana have met 1 time: 1 Colombia win, 0 draws, 0 Ghana wins.