FootyTips 
Ghana vs Panama 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Toronto Stadium
Match Status
Ghana 1-0 Panama · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Panama to win at 66%. Overall probabilities: Ghana 13%, draw 21%, Panama 66%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 66%
model top outcome · 66%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Ghana 13% / Draw 21% / Panama 66%; expected goals 0.74-1.96; BTTS 45%; blended best estimate 27.7%/28.4%/43.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Ghana 1-0 Panama. Model pick: Panama. Actual result: Ghana.
Brier contribution: 1.2395 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Ghana win: 13%
- Draw: 21%
- Panama win: 66%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.74 - 1.96
- Over 2.5: 50%
- Both teams to score: 45%
Model Ratings
Ghana Elo 1701 · Panama Elo 1774
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Ghana and Panama have met 1 time: 1 Ghana win, 0 draws, 0 Panama wins.
- Ghana 1–0 Panama · 2026-06-17 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model makes Panama clear favourites at 66% in this Group L fixture at Toronto Stadium — Ghana 13%, the draw 21%, Panama 66%. A modest Elo edge to Panama (1774 vs 1701), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 45%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Ghana vs Panama?
Panama are favoured at 66%. Ghana 13% / Draw 21% / Panama 66%.
What is the predicted score for Ghana vs Panama?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Ghana vs Panama?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 40.7% Ghana win, 30.0% draw, 29.3% Panama win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 27.7% / 28.4% / 43.9%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Ghana vs Panama have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ghana vs Panama?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ghana and Panama?
Ghana and Panama have met 1 time: 1 Ghana win, 0 draws, 0 Panama wins.