Turkey vs Paraguay Prediction

Jun 20, 03:00 AM UTC · Group Stage - 2 · San Francisco Bay Area Stadium

Match Status

Turkey 0-1 Paraguay · FT · Miss

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Turkey narrowly favoured (43%). Overall probabilities: Turkey 43%, draw 28%, Paraguay 29%; model score 1-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 43%

Turkey 0-1 Paraguay result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Turkey
model top outcome · 43%

1-1
model score forecast

44%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-11
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Turkey 43% / Draw 28% / Paraguay 29%; expected goals 1.36-1.06; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 45.6%/28.3%/26.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/turkey-vs-paraguay-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/turkey-vs-paraguay.png" alt="Turkey vs Paraguay prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Turkey 0-1 Paraguay. Model pick: Turkey. Actual result: Paraguay.

Brier contribution: 0.7741 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Turkey win: 43%
Draw: 28%
Paraguay win: 29%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.36 - 1.06
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams to score: 49%

Model Ratings

Turkey Elo 1922 · Paraguay Elo 1899

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Turkey and Paraguay have met 1 time: 0 Turkey wins, 0 draws, 1 Paraguay win.

Turkey 0–1 Paraguay · 2026-06-19 · FIFA World Cup

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Group D fixture at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium: Turkey 43%, the draw 28%, Paraguay 29%. With near-level Elo ratings (Turkey 1922, Paraguay 1899), Turkey are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–1.

Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Turkey vs Paraguay?

Turkey are favoured at 43%. Turkey 43% / Draw 28% / Paraguay 29%.

What is the predicted score for Turkey vs Paraguay?

Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Turkey vs Paraguay?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 47.3% Turkey win, 28.4% draw, 24.4% Paraguay win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 45.6% / 28.3% / 26.0%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Turkey vs Paraguay have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Turkey vs Paraguay?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.

What is the head-to-head record between Turkey and Paraguay?

Turkey and Paraguay have met 1 time: 0 Turkey wins, 0 draws, 1 Paraguay win.