FootyTips 
Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Toronto Stadium
Match Status
Canada 1-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Canada to win at 85%. Overall probabilities: Canada 85%, draw 11%, Bosnia-Herzegovina 4%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 85%
model top outcome · 85%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Canada 85% / Draw 11% / Bosnia-Herzegovina 4%; expected goals 2.83-0.51; BTTS 38%; blended best estimate 68.4%/19.7%/11.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Canada 1-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina. Model pick: Canada. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 1.5069 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Canada win: 85%
- Draw: 11%
- Bosnia-Herzegovina win: 4%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.83 - 0.51
- Over 2.5: 65%
- Both teams to score: 38%
Model Ratings
Canada Elo 1841 · Bosnia-Herzegovina Elo 1667
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina have met 1 time: 0 Canada wins, 1 draw, 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina wins.
- Canada 1–1 Bosnia-Herzegovina · 2026-06-12 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model makes Canada clear favourites at 85% in this Group B fixture at Toronto Stadium — Canada 85%, the draw 11%, Bosnia-Herzegovina 4%. A clear Elo edge to Canada (1841 vs 1667), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 38%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Canada are favoured at 85%. Canada 85% / Draw 11% / Bosnia-Herzegovina 4%.
What is the predicted score for Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 52.8% Canada win, 25.6% draw, 21.7% Bosnia-Herzegovina win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 68.4% / 19.7% / 11.9%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina have met 1 time: 0 Canada wins, 1 draw, 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina wins.