Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Estadio BBVA
Our model gives Sweden a 55% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Sweden win: 55%
- Draw: 23%
- Tunisia win: 22%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.78 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals: 53%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Sweden Elo 1790 · Tunisia Elo 1730
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Sweden are favoured at 55% against Tunisia (22%), with the draw at 23%. Sweden's rating edge (1790 vs 1730) is modest, and the model expects a tight 1–1 in this important opener.
Both sides will see this as a winnable game in a group containing the Netherlands and Japan. Both teams to score at 53%. Sweden's directness against Tunisian discipline should make for a cagey, low-margin contest.
FAQ
Who will win Sweden vs Tunisia?
Sweden are favoured with a 55% win probability. Sweden 55% / Draw 23% / Tunisia 22%.
What is the predicted score for Sweden vs Tunisia?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Sweden vs Tunisia have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sweden vs Tunisia?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.