Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction

Jun 15, 02:00 AM UTC · Group Stage - 1 · Monterrey Stadium

Match Status

Sweden 5-1 Tunisia · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Sweden narrowly favoured (36%). Overall probabilities: Sweden 36%, draw 29%, Tunisia 35%; model score 1-1.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 36%

Sweden 5-1 Tunisia result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Sweden
model top outcome · 36%

1-1
model score forecast

43%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-11
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Sweden 36% / Draw 29% / Tunisia 35%; expected goals 1.20-1.20; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 44.6%/28.6%/26.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/sweden-vs-tunisia-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/sweden-vs-tunisia.png" alt="Sweden vs Tunisia prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Sweden 5-1 Tunisia. Model pick: Sweden. Actual result: Sweden.

Brier contribution: 0.6208 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Sweden win: 36%
Draw: 29%
Tunisia win: 35%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.20 - 1.20
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams to score: 49%

Model Ratings

Sweden Elo 1800 · Tunisia Elo 1681

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Sweden and Tunisia have met 5 times: 3 Sweden wins, 1 draw, 1 Tunisia win.

Sweden 5–1 Tunisia · 2026-06-14 · FIFA World Cup
Tunisia 1–0 Sweden · 2003-02-12
Tunisia 0–1 Sweden · 1999-02-10
Tunisia 0–1 Sweden · 1992-04-22
Tunisia 1–1 Sweden · 1976-02-28

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Group F fixture at Monterrey Stadium: Sweden 36%, the draw 29%, Tunisia 35%. With a clear Elo edge to Sweden (1800 vs 1681), Sweden are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–1.

Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Sweden vs Tunisia?

Sweden are favoured at 36%. Sweden 36% / Draw 29% / Tunisia 35%.

What is the predicted score for Sweden vs Tunisia?

Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Sweden vs Tunisia?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 50.5% Sweden win, 27.9% draw, 21.7% Tunisia win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 44.6% / 28.6% / 26.8%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Sweden vs Tunisia have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sweden vs Tunisia?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.

What is the head-to-head record between Sweden and Tunisia?

Sweden and Tunisia have met 5 times: 3 Sweden wins, 1 draw, 1 Tunisia win.