FootyTips 
Senegal vs Iraq 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Toronto Stadium
Match Status
Senegal 5-0 Iraq · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Senegal to win at 59%. Overall probabilities: Senegal 59%, draw 24%, Iraq 17%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 59%
model top outcome · 59%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Senegal 59% / Draw 24% / Iraq 17%; expected goals 1.75-0.82; BTTS 47%; blended best estimate 72.6%/17.4%/10.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Senegal 5-0 Iraq. Model pick: Senegal. Actual result: Senegal.
Brier contribution: 0.2539 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Senegal win: 59%
- Draw: 24%
- Iraq win: 17%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.75 - 0.82
- Over 2.5: 48%
- Both teams to score: 47%
Model Ratings
Senegal Elo 1874 · Iraq Elo 1672
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-26. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Senegal and Iraq have met 1 time: 1 Senegal win, 0 draws, 0 Iraq wins.
- Senegal 5–0 Iraq · 2026-06-26 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has Senegal clear favourites at 59% in this Group I fixture at Toronto Stadium — Senegal 59%, the draw 24%, Iraq 17%. A big Elo gap in Senegal's favour (1874 vs 1672), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 47%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Senegal vs Iraq?
Senegal are favoured at 59%. Senegal 59% / Draw 24% / Iraq 17%.
What is the predicted score for Senegal vs Iraq?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Senegal vs Iraq?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 79.8% Senegal win, 13.4% draw, 6.9% Iraq win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 72.6% / 17.4% / 10.1%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Senegal vs Iraq have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Senegal vs Iraq?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Senegal and Iraq?
Senegal and Iraq have met 1 time: 1 Senegal win, 0 draws, 0 Iraq wins.