Senegal vs Iraq Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · BMO Field
Our model gives Senegal a 68% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 2–0.
Win Probability
- Senegal win: 68%
- Draw: 19%
- Iraq win: 13%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 2–0
- Expected goals (model λ): 2.17 – 0.84
- Over 2.5 goals: 58%
- Both teams to score: 50%
Model Ratings
Senegal Elo 1820 · Iraq Elo 1680
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Senegal are strong favourites at 68% against Iraq (13%), with the draw at 19% and a 2–0 projected. Senegal's rating (1820 vs 1680) and physical edge mark them as favourites.
Iraq will defend deep and look to frustrate. Over 2.5 at 58%. With qualification likely on the line, Senegal must convert their superiority — an early goal would go a long way to securing progress.
FAQ
Who will win Senegal vs Iraq?
Senegal are favoured with a 68% win probability. Senegal 68% / Draw 19% / Iraq 13%.
What is the predicted score for Senegal vs Iraq?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 2–0.
Will Senegal vs Iraq have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Senegal vs Iraq?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 50%.