FootyTips 
France vs England 
Prediction
· Third-place play-off · Miami Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 21:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with France narrowly favoured (42%). Overall probabilities: France 42%, draw 28%, England 30%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 42%
model top outcome · 42%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 28.3% vs market 23.7%, edge +4.7pp.
Best available odds: 4.175 at 1xbet · odds value +18%. cloudbet 4.05 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Lean value: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 4.17 with 1xbet. The model has it at 28.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 23.7% (+4.7pp edge).
Small positive edge; worth monitoring, not a must-bet signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-18T18:45:12.009Z.
This match value signal
Signal: England win
Model 29.6% vs market 25.0%, edge +4.6pp.
Best available odds: 4.02 at 1xbet · odds value +19%. cloudbet 3.9 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Lean value: the current top sportsbook price for England win is 4.02 with 1xbet. The model has it at 29.6% versus a de-vigged market probability of 25.0% (+4.6pp edge).
Small positive edge; worth monitoring, not a must-bet signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-18T18:45:12.009Z.
This match value signal
Signal: France win
Model 42.1% vs market 51.1%, edge -9.0pp.
Best available odds: 1.91 at vave · odds value -20%. stake 1.86 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for France win is 1.91 with vave. The model has it at 42.1% versus a de-vigged market probability of 51.1% (-9.0pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-18T18:45:12.009Z.
| Source | France | Draw | England |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 42.1% | 28.3% | 29.6% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave) | 51.1% | 23.7% | 25.0% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 47.6% | 25.5% | 26.9% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Jul 18, 04:01 PM UTC.
| Sportsbook | France | Draw | England |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.86 | 3.9 | 3.75 |
| 1xbet | 1.897 | 4.175 | 4.02 |
| bcgame ↗ | 1.85 | 4 | 3.75 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 1.85 | 4.05 | 3.9 |
| roobet | 1.85 | 4 | 3.75 |
| vave | 1.91 | 4 | 3.9 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.86 | 3.9 | 3.75 |
| ★ Best | 1.91 vave | 4.175 1xbet | 4.02 1xbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: France 42% / Draw 28% / England 30%; expected goals 1.34-1.08; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 47.6%/25.5%/26.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-07-18T18:45:12.009Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- France win: 42%
- Draw: 28%
- England win: 30%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.34 - 1.08
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
France Elo 2191 · England Elo 2146
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-18. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
France and England have met 34 times: 11 France wins, 6 draws, 17 England wins.
- England 1–2 France · 2022-12-10 · FIFA World Cup
- France 3–2 England · 2017-06-13
- England 2–0 France · 2015-11-17
- France 1–1 England · 2012-06-11 · UEFA Euro
- England 1–2 France · 2010-11-17
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched World Cup 2026 fixture at Miami Stadium: France 42%, the draw 28%, England 30%. With a modest Elo edge to France (2191 vs 2146), France are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win France vs England?
France are favoured at 42%. France 42% / Draw 28% / England 30%.
What is the predicted score for France vs England?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about France vs England?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave imply 51.1% France win, 23.7% draw, 25.0% England win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 47.6% / 25.5% / 26.9%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-18T18:45:12.009Z.
Will France vs England have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in France vs England?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between France and England?
France and England have met 34 times: 11 France wins, 6 draws, 17 England wins.