Spain vs Cape Verde Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Our model gives Spain a 92% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 3–0.
Win Probability
- Spain win: 92%
- Draw: 6%
- Cape Verde win: 2%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 3–0
- Expected goals (model λ): 3.67 – 0.50
- Over 2.5 goals: 78%
- Both teams to score: 38%
Model Ratings
Spain Elo 2050 · Cape Verde Elo 1700
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Spain begin Group H as huge favourites at 92% against debutants Cape Verde (2%), with a 3–0 the most likely scoreline. Spain's rating (2050) is among the very best in the tournament.
Cape Verde's first World Cup match comes against arguably the group's strongest side. Over 2.5 goals at 78%. Spain will aim to assert control early and build the goal difference that can prove vital in tight groups.
FAQ
Who will win Spain vs Cape Verde?
Spain are favoured with a 92% win probability. Spain 92% / Draw 6% / Cape Verde 2%.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Cape Verde?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 3–0.
Will Spain vs Cape Verde have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Spain vs Cape Verde?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 38%.