FootyTips 
Spain vs Cape Verde 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Atlanta Stadium
Match Status
Spain 0-0 Cape Verde · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Spain to win at 97%. Overall probabilities: Spain 97%, draw 2%, Cape Verde 1%; model score 4-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 97%
model top outcome · 97%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Spain 97% / Draw 2% / Cape Verde 1%; expected goals 4.58-0.31; BTTS 27%; blended best estimate 93.9%/4.7%/1.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Spain 0-0 Cape Verde. Model pick: Spain. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 1.8924 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Spain win: 97%
- Draw: 2%
- Cape Verde win: 1%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 4-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 4.58 - 0.31
- Over 2.5: 86%
- Both teams to score: 27%
Model Ratings
Spain Elo 2295 · Cape Verde Elo 1700
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Spain and Cape Verde have met 1 time: 0 Spain wins, 1 draw, 0 Cape Verde wins.
- Spain 0–0 Cape Verde · 2026-06-15 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has Spain clear favourites at 97% in this Group H fixture at Atlanta Stadium — Spain 97%, the draw 2%, Cape Verde 1%. A big Elo gap in Spain's favour (2295 vs 1700), and the model score forecast is 4–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 86% and both teams to score at 27%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Spain vs Cape Verde?
Spain are favoured at 97%. Spain 97% / Draw 2% / Cape Verde 1%.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Cape Verde?
Our model score forecast is 4-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Spain vs Cape Verde?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 90.2% Spain win, 7.1% draw, 2.7% Cape Verde win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 93.9% / 4.7% / 1.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Spain vs Cape Verde have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 86% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Spain vs Cape Verde?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spain and Cape Verde?
Spain and Cape Verde have met 1 time: 0 Spain wins, 1 draw, 0 Cape Verde wins.