FootyTips 
Ecuador vs Curaçao 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 2 · Kansas City Stadium
Match Status
Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Ecuador to win at 90%. Overall probabilities: Ecuador 90%, draw 8%, Curaçao 2%; model score 3-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 90%
model top outcome · 90%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Ecuador 90% / Draw 8% / Curaçao 2%; expected goals 3.23-0.45; BTTS 35%; blended best estimate 87.0%/9.8%/3.2%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao. Model pick: Ecuador. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 1.6470 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Ecuador win: 90%
- Draw: 8%
- Curaçao win: 2%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 3-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 3.23 - 0.45
- Over 2.5: 71%
- Both teams to score: 35%
Model Ratings
Ecuador Elo 1960 · Curaçao Elo 1602
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Ecuador and Curaçao have met 1 time: 0 Ecuador wins, 1 draw, 0 Curaçao wins.
- Ecuador 0–0 Curaçao · 2026-06-20 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has Ecuador clear favourites at 90% in this Group E fixture at Kansas City Stadium — Ecuador 90%, the draw 8%, Curaçao 2%. A big Elo gap in Ecuador's favour (1960 vs 1602), and the model score forecast is 3–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 35%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Ecuador vs Curaçao?
Ecuador are favoured at 90%. Ecuador 90% / Draw 8% / Curaçao 2%.
What is the predicted score for Ecuador vs Curaçao?
Our model score forecast is 3-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Ecuador vs Curaçao?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 85.1% Ecuador win, 11.1% draw, 3.8% Curaçao win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 87.0% / 9.8% / 3.2%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Ecuador vs Curaçao have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ecuador vs Curaçao?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ecuador and Curaçao?
Ecuador and Curaçao have met 1 time: 0 Ecuador wins, 1 draw, 0 Curaçao wins.