FootyTips 
Colombia vs Portugal 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Miami Stadium
Match Status
Colombia 0-0 Portugal · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Colombia narrowly favoured (40%). Overall probabilities: Colombia 40%, draw 28%, Portugal 32%; model score 1-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 40%
model top outcome · 40%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Colombia 40% / Draw 28% / Portugal 32%; expected goals 1.29-1.12; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 30.3%/26.3%/43.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Colombia 0-0 Portugal. Model pick: Colombia. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.7692 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Colombia win: 40%
- Draw: 28%
- Portugal win: 32%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.29 - 1.12
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Colombia Elo 2082 · Portugal Elo 2062
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-27. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Colombia and Portugal have met 1 time: 0 Colombia wins, 1 draw, 0 Portugal wins.
- Colombia 0–0 Portugal · 2026-06-27 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Group K fixture at Miami Stadium: Colombia 40%, the draw 28%, Portugal 32%. With near-level Elo ratings (Colombia 2082, Portugal 2062), Colombia are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Colombia vs Portugal?
Colombia are favoured at 40%. Colombia 40% / Draw 28% / Portugal 32%.
What is the predicted score for Colombia vs Portugal?
Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Colombia vs Portugal?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 24.4% Colombia win, 24.1% draw, 51.6% Portugal win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 30.3% / 26.3% / 43.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Colombia vs Portugal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Colombia vs Portugal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colombia and Portugal?
Colombia and Portugal have met 1 time: 0 Colombia wins, 1 draw, 0 Portugal wins.