FootyTips 
Paraguay vs Australia 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · San Francisco Bay Area Stadium
Match Status
Paraguay 0-0 Australia · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Australia narrowly favoured (37%). Overall probabilities: Paraguay 34%, draw 29%, Australia 37%; model score 1-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 37%
model top outcome · 37%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Paraguay 34% / Draw 29% / Australia 37%; expected goals 1.17-1.24; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 35.0%/37.2%/27.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Paraguay 0-0 Australia. Model pick: Australia. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.7636 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Paraguay win: 34%
- Draw: 29%
- Australia win: 37%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.17 - 1.24
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
Paraguay Elo 1899 · Australia Elo 1904
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-26. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Paraguay and Australia have met 6 times: 0 Paraguay wins, 4 draws, 2 Australia wins.
- Paraguay 0–0 Australia · 2026-06-25 · FIFA World Cup
- Australia 1–0 Paraguay · 2010-10-09
- Australia 1–1 Paraguay · 2006-10-07
- Australia 2–1 Paraguay · 2000-06-15
- Australia 0–0 Paraguay · 2000-06-12
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Group D fixture at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium: Paraguay 34%, the draw 29%, Australia 37%. With near-level Elo ratings (Paraguay 1899, Australia 1904), Australia are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Paraguay vs Australia?
Australia are favoured at 37%. Paraguay 34% / Draw 29% / Australia 37%.
What is the predicted score for Paraguay vs Australia?
Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Paraguay vs Australia?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 34.7% Paraguay win, 43.0% draw, 22.2% Australia win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 35.0% / 37.2% / 27.8%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Paraguay vs Australia have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Paraguay vs Australia?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paraguay and Australia?
Paraguay and Australia have met 6 times: 0 Paraguay wins, 4 draws, 2 Australia wins.