FootyTips 
New Zealand vs Belgium 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · BC Place Vancouver
Match Status
New Zealand 1-5 Belgium · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Belgium to win at 71%. Overall probabilities: New Zealand 10%, draw 19%, Belgium 71%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 71%
model top outcome · 71%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: New Zealand 10% / Draw 19% / Belgium 71%; expected goals 0.68-2.12; BTTS 44%; blended best estimate 7.7%/14.5%/77.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score New Zealand 1-5 Belgium. Model pick: Belgium. Actual result: Belgium.
Brier contribution: 0.1342 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- New Zealand win: 10%
- Draw: 19%
- Belgium win: 71%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.68 - 2.12
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 44%
Model Ratings
New Zealand Elo 1673 · Belgium Elo 2022
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-27. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
New Zealand and Belgium have met 1 time: 0 New Zealand wins, 0 draws, 1 Belgium win.
- New Zealand 1–5 Belgium · 2026-06-26 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs Belgium clear favourites at 71% in this Group G fixture at BC Place Vancouver — New Zealand 10%, the draw 19%, Belgium 71%. A big Elo gap in Belgium's favour (2022 vs 1673), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 44%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win New Zealand vs Belgium?
Belgium are favoured at 71%. New Zealand 10% / Draw 19% / Belgium 71%.
What is the predicted score for New Zealand vs Belgium?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about New Zealand vs Belgium?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 6.3% New Zealand win, 11.9% draw, 81.7% Belgium win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 7.7% / 14.5% / 77.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will New Zealand vs Belgium have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in New Zealand vs Belgium?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between New Zealand and Belgium?
New Zealand and Belgium have met 1 time: 0 New Zealand wins, 0 draws, 1 Belgium win.