New Zealand vs Belgium Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · BC Place
Our model gives Belgium a 74% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 0–2.
Win Probability
- New Zealand win: 10%
- Draw: 16%
- Belgium win: 74%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 0–2
- Expected goals (model λ): 0.76 – 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals: 61%
- Both teams to score: 48%
Model Ratings
New Zealand Elo 1660 · Belgium Elo 1940
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Belgium are heavily favoured at 74% against New Zealand (10%), with the draw at 16% and a 0–2 the most likely result. Belgium's class (1940 vs 1660) should shine in this final-round game.
New Zealand will defend deep and hope to spring a surprise. Over 2.5 at 61%. Belgium will look to wrap up top spot in style, while the Kiwis aim to bow out with a competitive display.
FAQ
Who will win New Zealand vs Belgium?
Belgium are favoured with a 74% win probability. New Zealand 10% / Draw 16% / Belgium 74%.
What is the predicted score for New Zealand vs Belgium?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 0–2.
Will New Zealand vs Belgium have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in New Zealand vs Belgium?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 48%.