Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Lincoln Financial Field
Our model gives Ivory Coast a 43% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 1–1.
Win Probability
- Ivory Coast win: 43%
- Draw: 25%
- Ecuador win: 31%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 1–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 1.49 – 1.22
- Over 2.5 goals: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Ivory Coast Elo 1790 · Ecuador Elo 1800
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
A finely poised contest: Ivory Coast at 43%, Ecuador at 31% and the draw at 25%. The ratings are near-level (1790 vs 1800), and with both defences well-drilled the model expects a tight 1–1.
This looks a pivotal game in the race to follow Germany out of the group. Both teams to score sits at 55%. Ecuador's youthful energy against Ivorian power should make for an even, physical battle where small margins decide it.
FAQ
Who will win Ivory Coast vs Ecuador?
Ivory Coast are favoured with a 43% win probability. Ivory Coast 43% / Draw 25% / Ecuador 31%.
What is the predicted score for Ivory Coast vs Ecuador?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 1–1.
Will Ivory Coast vs Ecuador have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ivory Coast vs Ecuador?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.