FootyTips 
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Philadelphia Stadium
Match Status
Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Ecuador to win at 67%. Overall probabilities: Ivory Coast 12%, draw 21%, Ecuador 67%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 67%
model top outcome · 67%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Ivory Coast 12% / Draw 21% / Ecuador 67%; expected goals 0.72-2.01; BTTS 45%; blended best estimate 21.3%/29.1%/49.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador. Model pick: Ecuador. Actual result: Ivory Coast.
Brier contribution: 1.2694 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Ivory Coast win: 12%
- Draw: 21%
- Ecuador win: 67%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.72 - 2.01
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 45%
Model Ratings
Ivory Coast Elo 1839 · Ecuador Elo 1960
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Ivory Coast and Ecuador have met 1 time: 1 Ivory Coast win, 0 draws, 0 Ecuador wins.
- Ivory Coast 1–0 Ecuador · 2026-06-14 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs Ecuador clear favourites at 67% in this Group E fixture at Philadelphia Stadium — Ivory Coast 12%, the draw 21%, Ecuador 67%. A clear Elo edge to Ecuador (1960 vs 1839), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 45%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Ivory Coast vs Ecuador?
Ecuador are favoured at 67%. Ivory Coast 12% / Draw 21% / Ecuador 67%.
What is the predicted score for Ivory Coast vs Ecuador?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Ivory Coast vs Ecuador?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 28.9% Ivory Coast win, 33.6% draw, 37.5% Ecuador win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 21.3% / 29.1% / 49.6%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Ivory Coast vs Ecuador have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ivory Coast vs Ecuador?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ivory Coast and Ecuador?
Ivory Coast and Ecuador have met 1 time: 1 Ivory Coast win, 0 draws, 0 Ecuador wins.