Croatia vs Ghana Prediction

Jun 27, 09:00 PM UTC · Group Stage - 3 · Philadelphia Stadium

Match Status

Croatia 2-1 Ghana · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Croatia to win at 71%. Overall probabilities: Croatia 71%, draw 19%, Ghana 10%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 71%

Croatia 2-1 Ghana result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Croatia
model top outcome · 71%

2-0
model score forecast

53%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-27
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Croatia 71% / Draw 19% / Ghana 10%; expected goals 2.13-0.67; BTTS 44%; blended best estimate 60.3%/25.4%/14.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/croatia-vs-ghana-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/croatia-vs-ghana.png" alt="Croatia vs Ghana prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Croatia 2-1 Ghana. Model pick: Croatia. Actual result: Croatia.

Brier contribution: 0.1318 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Croatia win: 71%
Draw: 19%
Ghana win: 10%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.13 - 0.67
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams to score: 44%

Model Ratings

Croatia Elo 1949 · Ghana Elo 1701

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-27. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Croatia and Ghana have met 1 time: 1 Croatia win, 0 draws, 0 Ghana wins.

Croatia 2–1 Ghana · 2026-06-27 · FIFA World Cup

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model has Croatia clear favourites at 71% in this Group L fixture at Philadelphia Stadium — Croatia 71%, the draw 19%, Ghana 10%. A big Elo gap in Croatia's favour (1949 vs 1701), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 44%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Croatia vs Ghana?

Croatia are favoured at 71%. Croatia 71% / Draw 19% / Ghana 10%.

What is the predicted score for Croatia vs Ghana?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Croatia vs Ghana?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 52.7% Croatia win, 29.9% draw, 17.4% Ghana win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 60.3% / 25.4% / 14.3%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Croatia vs Ghana have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Croatia vs Ghana?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 44%.

What is the head-to-head record between Croatia and Ghana?

Croatia and Ghana have met 1 time: 1 Croatia win, 0 draws, 0 Ghana wins.