FootyTips 
Germany vs Paraguay 
Prediction
· Round of 32 · Boston Stadium
Match Status
Germany 1-1 Paraguay · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Germany to win at 49%. Overall probabilities: Germany 49%, draw 27%, Paraguay 24%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 49%
model top outcome · 49%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Germany 49% / Draw 27% / Paraguay 24%; expected goals 1.50-0.96; BTTS 48%; blended best estimate 60.4%/23.2%/16.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Germany 1-1 Paraguay. Model pick: Germany. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.8313 · settled 2026-08-19
Win Probability
- Germany win: 49%
- Draw: 27%
- Paraguay win: 24%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.50 - 0.96
- Over 2.5: 45%
- Both teams to score: 48%
Model Ratings
Germany Elo 1985 · Paraguay Elo 1899
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-29. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Germany and Paraguay have met 3 times: 1 Germany win, 2 draws, 0 Paraguay wins.
- Germany 1–1 Paraguay · 2026-06-29 · FIFA World Cup
- Germany 3–3 Paraguay · 2013-08-14
- Germany 1–0 Paraguay · 2002-06-15 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates Germany clear favourites at 49% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Boston Stadium — Germany 49%, the draw 27%, Paraguay 24%. A clear Elo edge to Germany (1985 vs 1899), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 48%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Germany vs Paraguay?
Germany are favoured at 49%. Germany 49% / Draw 27% / Paraguay 24%.
What is the predicted score for Germany vs Paraguay?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Germany vs Paraguay?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 67.2% Germany win, 20.3% draw, 12.5% Paraguay win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 60.4% / 23.2% / 16.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Germany vs Paraguay have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Germany vs Paraguay?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Germany and Paraguay?
Germany and Paraguay have met 3 times: 1 Germany win, 2 draws, 0 Paraguay wins.