Japan vs Sweden Prediction

Jun 25, 11:00 PM UTC · Group Stage - 3 · Dallas Stadium

Match Status

Japan 1-1 Sweden · FT · Miss

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Japan to win at 68%. Overall probabilities: Japan 68%, draw 20%, Sweden 12%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 68%

Japan 1-1 Sweden result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Japan
model top outcome · 68%

2-0
model score forecast

52%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-06-25
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Japan 68% / Draw 20% / Sweden 12%; expected goals 2.03-0.71; BTTS 45%; blended best estimate 54.5%/26.0%/19.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/japan-vs-sweden-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/japan-vs-sweden.png" alt="Japan vs Sweden prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Miss: Final score Japan 1-1 Sweden. Model pick: Japan. Actual result: Draw.

Brier contribution: 1.1076 · settled 2026-07-19

Win Probability

Japan win: 68%
Draw: 20%
Sweden win: 12%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.03 - 0.71
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams to score: 45%

Model Ratings

Japan Elo 1975 · Sweden Elo 1800

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-25. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Japan and Sweden have met 5 times: 0 Japan wins, 4 draws, 1 Sweden win.

Japan 1–1 Sweden · 2026-06-25 · FIFA World Cup
Japan 1–1 Sweden · 2002-05-25
Japan 0–1 Sweden · 1997-02-13 · King's Cup
Japan 1–1 Sweden · 1996-02-22 · Lunar New Year Cup
Sweden 2–2 Japan · 1995-06-10

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model rates Japan clear favourites at 68% in this Group F fixture at Dallas Stadium — Japan 68%, the draw 20%, Sweden 12%. A clear Elo edge to Japan (1975 vs 1800), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 45%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Japan vs Sweden?

Japan are favoured at 68%. Japan 68% / Draw 20% / Sweden 12%.

What is the predicted score for Japan vs Sweden?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Japan vs Sweden?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 44.7% Japan win, 29.1% draw, 26.2% Sweden win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 54.5% / 26.0% / 19.5%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Japan vs Sweden have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Japan vs Sweden?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 45%.

What is the head-to-head record between Japan and Sweden?

Japan and Sweden have met 5 times: 0 Japan wins, 4 draws, 1 Sweden win.