FootyTips 
Spain vs Belgium 
Prediction
· Quarter-finals · Los Angeles Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 19:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Spain to win at 65%. Overall probabilities: Spain 65%, draw 22%, Belgium 13%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 65%
model top outcome · 65%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Spain win
Model 65.5% vs market 58.1%, edge +7.4pp.
Best available odds: 1.691 at 1xbet · odds value +11%. bcgame 1.66 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Lean value: the current top sportsbook price for Spain win is 1.69 with 1xbet. The model has it at 65.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 58.1% (+7.4pp edge).
Small positive edge; worth monitoring, not a must-bet signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-10T00:01:53.063Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 21.5% vs market 24.3%, edge -2.7pp.
Best available odds: 4.2 at vave · odds value -10%. duelbits 4.1 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 4.20 with vave. The model has it at 21.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 24.3% (-2.7pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-10T00:01:53.063Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Belgium win
Model 12.9% vs market 17.8%, edge -4.8pp.
Best available odds: 5.62 at 1xbet · odds value -27%. duelbits 5.55 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for Belgium win is 5.62 with 1xbet. The model has it at 12.9% versus a de-vigged market probability of 17.8% (-4.8pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-10T00:01:53.063Z.
| Source | Spain | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 65.5% | 21.5% | 12.9% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave) | 58.1% | 24.3% | 17.8% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 61.1% | 23.2% | 15.7% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Jul 10, 12:01 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Spain | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.62 | 3.95 | 5.2 |
| 1xbet | 1.691 | 4.06 | 5.62 |
| bcgame ↗ | 1.66 | 3.9 | 5.2 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 1.65 | 3.85 | 5.35 |
| roobet | 1.66 | 3.9 | 5.2 |
| vave | 1.64 | 4.2 | 5.6 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.65 | 4.1 | 5.55 |
| ★ Best | 1.691 1xbet | 4.2 vave | 5.62 1xbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Spain 65% / Draw 22% / Belgium 13%; expected goals 1.95-0.74; BTTS 45%; blended best estimate 61.1%/23.2%/15.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-07-10T00:01:53.063Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Spain win: 65%
- Draw: 22%
- Belgium win: 13%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.95 - 0.74
- Over 2.5: 50%
- Both teams to score: 45%
Model Ratings
Spain Elo 2238 · Belgium Elo 2036
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-10. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Spain and Belgium have met 22 times: 11 Spain wins, 6 draws, 5 Belgium wins.
- Belgium 0–2 Spain · 2016-09-01
- Spain 5–0 Belgium · 2009-09-05 · FIFA World Cup qualification
- Belgium 1–2 Spain · 2008-10-15 · FIFA World Cup qualification
- Belgium 0–2 Spain · 2005-10-08 · FIFA World Cup qualification
- Spain 2–0 Belgium · 2004-10-09 · FIFA World Cup qualification
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs Spain clear favourites at 65% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Los Angeles Stadium — Spain 65%, the draw 22%, Belgium 13%. A big Elo gap in Spain's favour (2238 vs 2036), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 45%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Spain vs Belgium?
Spain are favoured at 65%. Spain 65% / Draw 22% / Belgium 13%.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Belgium?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Spain vs Belgium?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, roobet, stake, vave imply 58.1% Spain win, 24.3% draw, 17.8% Belgium win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 61.1% / 23.2% / 15.7%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-10T00:01:53.063Z.
Will Spain vs Belgium have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Spain vs Belgium?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spain and Belgium?
Spain and Belgium have met 22 times: 11 Spain wins, 6 draws, 5 Belgium wins.