Spain vs Belgium Prediction

Jul 10, 07:00 PM UTC · Quarter-finals · Los Angeles Stadium

Match Status

Spain 2-1 Belgium · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Spain to win at 65%. Overall probabilities: Spain 65%, draw 22%, Belgium 13%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 65%

Spain 2-1 Belgium result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Spain
model top outcome · 65%

2-0
model score forecast

50%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-07-10
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Spain 65% / Draw 22% / Belgium 13%; expected goals 1.95-0.74; BTTS 45%; blended best estimate 62.0%/22.9%/15.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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<a href="https://footytips.io/world-cup-2026/spain-vs-belgium-prediction/?ref=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img src="https://footytips.io/social/spain-vs-belgium.png" alt="Spain vs Belgium prediction — World Cup 2026" width="540" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:12px"></a>
<p style="font:14px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;margin:.4rem 0">AI World Cup 2026 prediction by <a href="https://footytips.io/?ref=embed">FootyTips.io</a></p>

Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Spain 2-1 Belgium. Model pick: Spain. Actual result: Spain.

Brier contribution: 0.1820 · settled 2026-09-04

Win Probability

Spain win: 65%
Draw: 22%
Belgium win: 13%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.95 - 0.74
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams to score: 45%

Model Ratings

Spain Elo 2323 · Belgium Elo 2022

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-10. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

Spain and Belgium have met 23 times: 12 Spain wins, 6 draws, 5 Belgium wins.

Spain 2–1 Belgium · 2026-07-10 · FIFA World Cup
Belgium 0–2 Spain · 2016-09-01
Spain 5–0 Belgium · 2009-09-05 · FIFA World Cup qualification
Belgium 1–2 Spain · 2008-10-15 · FIFA World Cup qualification
Belgium 0–2 Spain · 2005-10-08 · FIFA World Cup qualification

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

The model installs Spain clear favourites at 65% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Los Angeles Stadium — Spain 65%, the draw 22%, Belgium 13%. A big Elo gap in Spain's favour (2323 vs 2022), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 45%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win Spain vs Belgium?

Spain are favoured at 65%. Spain 65% / Draw 22% / Belgium 13%.

What is the predicted score for Spain vs Belgium?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about Spain vs Belgium?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 59.6% Spain win, 23.7% draw, 16.7% Belgium win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 62.0% / 22.9% / 15.1%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will Spain vs Belgium have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Spain vs Belgium?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 45%.

What is the head-to-head record between Spain and Belgium?

Spain and Belgium have met 23 times: 12 Spain wins, 6 draws, 5 Belgium wins.