Haiti vs Scotland Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Gillette Stadium
Our model gives Scotland a 58% chance to win this World Cup 2026 match-up, with a most likely score of 0–1.
Win Probability
- Haiti win: 19%
- Draw: 22%
- Scotland win: 58%
Goals & Scoreline
- Most likely score: 0–1
- Expected goals (model λ): 0.98 – 1.87
- Over 2.5 goals: 54%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Haiti Elo 1620 · Scotland Elo 1800
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-03. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Scotland are favoured at 58% against Haiti (19%), with the draw at 22% and a 0–1 away win most likely. The rating gap is wide (1800 vs 1620), and Scotland's structure should prove too much.
Haiti will be spirited but face a clear step up in class. With over 2.5 goals at 54%, Scotland will want to settle nerves early in what is, on paper, their best chance of three points in a group also containing Brazil and Morocco.
FAQ
Who will win Haiti vs Scotland?
Scotland are favoured with a 58% win probability. Haiti 19% / Draw 22% / Scotland 58%.
What is the predicted score for Haiti vs Scotland?
Our model's most likely scoreline is 0–1.
Will Haiti vs Scotland have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Haiti vs Scotland?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.