FootyTips 
USA vs Belgium 
Prediction
· Round of 16 · Seattle Stadium
Match Status
USA 1-4 Belgium · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with USA narrowly favoured (37%). Overall probabilities: USA 37%, draw 29%, Belgium 34%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 37%
model top outcome · 37%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: USA 37% / Draw 29% / Belgium 34%; expected goals 1.23-1.17; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 37.5%/28.3%/34.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score USA 1-4 Belgium. Model pick: USA. Actual result: Belgium.
Brier contribution: 0.6489 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- USA win: 37%
- Draw: 29%
- Belgium win: 34%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.23 - 1.17
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
USA Elo 1837 · Belgium Elo 2022
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
USA and Belgium have met 9 times: 1 USA win, 0 draws, 8 Belgium wins.
- USA 1–4 Belgium · 2026-07-06 · FIFA World Cup
- USA 2–5 Belgium · 2026-03-28
- Belgium 2–1 USA · 2014-07-01 · FIFA World Cup
- USA 2–4 Belgium · 2013-05-29
- Belgium 1–0 USA · 2011-09-06
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched World Cup 2026 fixture at Seattle Stadium: USA 37%, the draw 29%, Belgium 34%. With a clear Elo edge to Belgium (2022 vs 1837), USA are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win USA vs Belgium?
USA are favoured at 37%. USA 37% / Draw 29% / Belgium 34%.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Belgium?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about USA vs Belgium?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 38.0% USA win, 28.1% draw, 33.9% Belgium win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 37.5% / 28.3% / 34.1%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will USA vs Belgium have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in USA vs Belgium?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between USA and Belgium?
USA and Belgium have met 9 times: 1 USA win, 0 draws, 8 Belgium wins.