England vs Argentina Prediction

Jul 15, 07:00 PM UTC · Semi-finals · Atlanta Stadium

Match Status

England 1-2 Argentina · FT · Hit

Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —

The model favours Argentina to win at 47%. Overall probabilities: England 25%, draw 28%, Argentina 47%; model score 0-1.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 47%

England 1-2 Argentina result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Argentina
model top outcome · 47%

0-1
model score forecast

44%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-07-15
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: England 25% / Draw 28% / Argentina 47%; expected goals 0.99-1.45; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 31.7%/31.0%/37.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score England 1-2 Argentina. Model pick: Argentina. Actual result: Argentina.

Brier contribution: 0.4189 · settled 2026-09-04

Win Probability

England win: 25%
Draw: 28%
Argentina win: 47%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 0-1
Expected goals (model lambda): 0.99 - 1.45
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams to score: 49%

Model Ratings

England Elo 2197 · Argentina Elo 2244

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-15. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Head-to-Head

England and Argentina have met 16 times: 6 England wins, 6 draws, 4 Argentina wins.

England 1–2 Argentina · 2026-07-15 · FIFA World Cup
England 3–2 Argentina · 2005-11-12
Argentina 0–1 England · 2002-06-07 · FIFA World Cup
England 0–0 Argentina · 2000-02-23
Argentina 2–2 England · 1998-06-30 · FIFA World Cup

Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).

Analysis

Our model makes Argentina clear favourites at 47% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Atlanta Stadium — England 25%, the draw 28%, Argentina 47%. A modest Elo edge to Argentina (2244 vs 2197), and the model score forecast is 0–1.

Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.

FAQ

Who will win England vs Argentina?

Argentina are favoured at 47%. England 25% / Draw 28% / Argentina 47%.

What is the predicted score for England vs Argentina?

Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

What do betting markets say about England vs Argentina?

De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 36.0% England win, 32.8% draw, 31.3% Argentina win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 31.7% / 31.0% / 37.3%. Market-probability snapshot: null.

Will England vs Argentina have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in England vs Argentina?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.

What is the head-to-head record between England and Argentina?

England and Argentina have met 16 times: 6 England wins, 6 draws, 4 Argentina wins.