FootyTips 
England vs Argentina 
Prediction
· Semi-finals · Atlanta Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 19:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Argentina to win at 47%. Overall probabilities: England 25%, draw 28%, Argentina 47%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 47%
model top outcome · 47%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Argentina win
Model 47.3% vs market 31.6%, edge +15.7pp.
Best available odds: 3.115 at 1xbet · odds value +47%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model–market disagreement: the current top sportsbook price for Argentina win is 3.12 with 1xbet. The model has it at 47.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 31.6% (+15.7pp edge).
The gap between model and market is unusually large. Gaps this size usually mean the model is missing information (injuries, line-ups, form) — treat it as a caution flag, not value. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-12T14:40:57.262Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 27.5% vs market 31.4%, edge -3.9pp.
Best available odds: 3.135 at 1xbet · odds value -14%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.13 with 1xbet. The model has it at 27.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 31.4% (-3.9pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-12T14:40:57.262Z.
This match value signal
Signal: England win
Model 25.2% vs market 37.0%, edge -11.8pp.
Best available odds: 2.662 at 1xbet · odds value -33%.
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for England win is 2.66 with 1xbet. The model has it at 25.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 37.0% (-11.8pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-12T14:40:57.262Z.
| Source | England | Draw | Argentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 25.2% | 27.5% | 47.3% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet) | 37.0% | 31.4% | 31.6% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 32.2% | 30.2% | 37.7% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
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Citable facts: England 25% / Draw 28% / Argentina 47%; expected goals 0.99-1.45; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 32.2%/30.2%/37.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-07-12T14:40:57.262Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- England win: 25%
- Draw: 28%
- Argentina win: 47%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.99 - 1.45
- Over 2.5: 44%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
England Elo 2148 · Argentina Elo 2228
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-12. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Argentina clear favourites at 47% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Atlanta Stadium — England 25%, the draw 28%, Argentina 47%. A clear Elo edge to Argentina (2228 vs 2148), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win England vs Argentina?
Argentina are favoured at 47%. England 25% / Draw 28% / Argentina 47%.
What is the predicted score for England vs Argentina?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about England vs Argentina?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet imply 37.0% England win, 31.4% draw, 31.6% Argentina win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 32.2% / 30.2% / 37.7%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-12T14:40:57.262Z.
Will England vs Argentina have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in England vs Argentina?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.