FootyTips 
France vs Spain 
Prediction
· Semi-finals · Dallas Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 19:00 UTC · Not started
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Spain narrowly favoured (38%). Overall probabilities: France 33%, draw 29%, Spain 38%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 38%
model top outcome · 38%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Spain win
Model 38.2% vs market 29.9%, edge +8.3pp.
Best available odds: 3.325 at 1xbet · odds value +27%. duelbits 3.25 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Lean value: the current top sportsbook price for Spain win is 3.33 with 1xbet. The model has it at 38.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 29.9% (+8.3pp edge).
Small positive edge; worth monitoring, not a must-bet signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-14T01:15:13.298Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 28.6% vs market 29.9%, edge -1.3pp.
Best available odds: 3.3 at vave · odds value -5%. duelbits 3.3 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
No bet: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.30 with vave. The model has it at 28.6% versus a de-vigged market probability of 29.9% (-1.3pp edge).
Model and market are close; no clear value signal. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-14T01:15:13.298Z.
This match value signal
Signal: France win
Model 33.2% vs market 40.4%, edge -7.2pp.
Best available odds: 2.438 at 1xbet · odds value -19%. bcgame 2.4 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Avoid: the current top sportsbook price for France win is 2.44 with 1xbet. The model has it at 33.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 40.4% (-7.2pp edge).
The market price is shorter than the model probability supports. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-14T01:15:13.298Z.
| Source | France | Draw | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 33.2% | 28.6% | 38.2% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave) | 40.4% | 29.9% | 29.9% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 37.4% | 29.5% | 33.1% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Jul 14, 12:01 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | France | Draw | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.32 | 3.2 | 3.15 |
| 1xbet | 2.438 | 3.285 | 3.325 |
| bcgame ↗ | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.15 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.15 |
| roobet | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.15 |
| vave | 2.38 | 3.3 | 3.25 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.38 | 3.3 | 3.25 |
| ★ Best | 2.438 1xbet | 3.3 vave | 3.325 1xbet |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: France 33% / Draw 29% / Spain 38%; expected goals 1.15-1.25; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 37.4%/29.5%/33.1%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-07-14T01:15:13.298Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- France win: 33%
- Draw: 29%
- Spain win: 38%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.15 - 1.25
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
France Elo 2234 · Spain Elo 2252
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-14. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
France and Spain have met 38 times: 13 France wins, 7 draws, 18 Spain wins.
- Spain 5–4 France · 2025-06-05 · UEFA Nations League
- Spain 2–1 France · 2024-07-09 · UEFA Euro
- Spain 1–2 France · 2021-10-10 · UEFA Nations League
- France 0–2 Spain · 2017-03-28
- France 1–0 Spain · 2014-09-04
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched World Cup 2026 fixture at Dallas Stadium: France 33%, the draw 29%, Spain 38%. With near-level Elo ratings (France 2234, Spain 2252), Spain are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win France vs Spain?
Spain are favoured at 38%. France 33% / Draw 29% / Spain 38%.
What is the predicted score for France vs Spain?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about France vs Spain?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from 1xbet, bcgame, cloudbet, duelbits, polymarket, roobet, stake, vave imply 40.4% France win, 29.9% draw, 29.9% Spain win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 37.4% / 29.5% / 33.1%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-07-14T01:15:13.298Z.
Will France vs Spain have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in France vs Spain?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between France and Spain?
France and Spain have met 38 times: 13 France wins, 7 draws, 18 Spain wins.