FootyTips 
France vs Spain 
Prediction
· Semi-finals · Dallas Stadium
Match Status
France 0-2 Spain · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Spain narrowly favoured (38%). Overall probabilities: France 33%, draw 29%, Spain 38%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 38%
model top outcome · 38%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: France 33% / Draw 29% / Spain 38%; expected goals 1.15-1.25; BTTS 49%; blended best estimate 36.8%/30.2%/33.0%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score France 0-2 Spain. Model pick: Spain. Actual result: Spain.
Brier contribution: 0.5741 · settled 2026-09-04
Win Probability
- France win: 33%
- Draw: 29%
- Spain win: 38%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.15 - 1.25
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
France Elo 2141 · Spain Elo 2323
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-14. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
France and Spain have met 39 times: 13 France wins, 7 draws, 19 Spain wins.
- France 0–2 Spain · 2026-07-14 · FIFA World Cup
- Spain 5–4 France · 2025-06-05 · UEFA Nations League
- Spain 2–1 France · 2024-07-09 · UEFA Euro
- Spain 1–2 France · 2021-10-10 · UEFA Nations League
- France 0–2 Spain · 2017-03-28
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched World Cup 2026 fixture at Dallas Stadium: France 33%, the draw 29%, Spain 38%. With a clear Elo edge to Spain (2323 vs 2141), Spain are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win France vs Spain?
Spain are favoured at 38%. France 33% / Draw 29% / Spain 38%.
What is the predicted score for France vs Spain?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about France vs Spain?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 39.2% France win, 31.0% draw, 29.7% Spain win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 36.8% / 30.2% / 33.0%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will France vs Spain have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in France vs Spain?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between France and Spain?
France and Spain have met 39 times: 13 France wins, 7 draws, 19 Spain wins.