FootyTips 
Argentina vs Egypt 
Prediction
· Round of 16 · Atlanta Stadium
Match Status
Argentina 3-2 Egypt · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Argentina to win at 86%. Overall probabilities: Argentina 86%, draw 10%, Egypt 4%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 86%
model top outcome · 86%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
Citable facts: Argentina 86% / Draw 10% / Egypt 4%; expected goals 2.94-0.49; BTTS 37%; blended best estimate 78.2%/15.4%/6.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Argentina 3-2 Egypt. Model pick: Argentina. Actual result: Argentina.
Brier contribution: 0.0308 · settled 2026-07-08
Win Probability
- Argentina win: 86%
- Draw: 10%
- Egypt win: 4%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.94 - 0.49
- Over 2.5: 67%
- Both teams to score: 37%
Model Ratings
Argentina Elo 2221 · Egypt Elo 1847
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-07-07. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Argentina and Egypt have met 2 times: 2 Argentina wins, 0 draws, 0 Egypt wins.
- Egypt 0–2 Argentina · 2008-03-26
- Argentina 6–0 Egypt · 1928-06-06 · Olympic Games
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model makes Argentina clear favourites at 86% in this World Cup 2026 fixture at Atlanta Stadium — Argentina 86%, the draw 10%, Egypt 4%. A big Elo gap in Argentina's favour (2221 vs 1847), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 37%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Argentina vs Egypt?
Argentina are favoured at 86%. Argentina 86% / Draw 10% / Egypt 4%.
What is the predicted score for Argentina vs Egypt?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Argentina vs Egypt?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 71.2% Argentina win, 19.7% draw, 9.1% Egypt win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 78.2% / 15.4% / 6.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Argentina vs Egypt have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Argentina vs Egypt?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Argentina and Egypt?
Argentina and Egypt have met 2 times: 2 Argentina wins, 0 draws, 0 Egypt wins.