FootyTips 
USA vs Paraguay 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Los Angeles Stadium
Match Status
USA 4-1 Paraguay · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with USA narrowly favoured (37%). Overall probabilities: USA 37%, draw 29%, Paraguay 34%; model score 1-1.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 37%
model top outcome · 37%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: USA 37% / Draw 29% / Paraguay 34%; expected goals 1.23-1.17; BTTS 49%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score USA 4-1 Paraguay. Model pick: USA. Actual result: USA.
Brier contribution: 0.5959 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- USA win: 37%
- Draw: 29%
- Paraguay win: 34%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.23 - 1.17
- Over 2.5: 43%
- Both teams to score: 49%
Model Ratings
USA Elo 1837 · Paraguay Elo 1899
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
USA and Paraguay have met 10 times: 6 USA wins, 2 draws, 2 Paraguay wins.
- USA 4–1 Paraguay · 2026-06-12 · FIFA World Cup
- USA 2–1 Paraguay · 2025-11-15
- USA 1–0 Paraguay · 2018-03-27
- USA 1–0 Paraguay · 2016-06-11 · Copa América
- USA 0–1 Paraguay · 2011-03-29
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Group D fixture at Los Angeles Stadium: USA 37%, the draw 29%, Paraguay 34%. With a modest Elo edge to Paraguay (1899 vs 1837), USA are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–1.
Expect a cagey game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win USA vs Paraguay?
USA are favoured at 37%. USA 37% / Draw 29% / Paraguay 34%.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Paraguay?
Our model score forecast is 1-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will USA vs Paraguay have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in USA vs Paraguay?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between USA and Paraguay?
USA and Paraguay have met 10 times: 6 USA wins, 2 draws, 2 Paraguay wins.