FootyTips 
Tunisia vs Netherlands 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Kansas City Stadium
Match Status
Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Netherlands to win at 83%. Overall probabilities: Tunisia 5%, draw 12%, Netherlands 83%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 83%
model top outcome · 83%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Tunisia 5% / Draw 12% / Netherlands 83%; expected goals 0.53-2.74; BTTS 38%; blended best estimate 3.9%/9.6%/86.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands. Model pick: Netherlands. Actual result: Netherlands.
Brier contribution: 0.0447 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Tunisia win: 5%
- Draw: 12%
- Netherlands win: 83%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.53 - 2.74
- Over 2.5: 63%
- Both teams to score: 38%
Model Ratings
Tunisia Elo 1681 · Netherlands Elo 2044
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-25. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Tunisia and Netherlands have met 4 times: 0 Tunisia wins, 2 draws, 2 Netherlands wins.
- Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands · 2026-06-25 · FIFA World Cup
- Tunisia 1–1 Netherlands · 2009-02-11
- Tunisia 2–2 Netherlands · 1994-01-19
- Tunisia 0–4 Netherlands · 1978-04-05
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model has Netherlands clear favourites at 83% in this Group F fixture at Kansas City Stadium — Tunisia 5%, the draw 12%, Netherlands 83%. A big Elo gap in Netherlands's favour (2044 vs 1681), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 38%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Netherlands are favoured at 83%. Tunisia 5% / Draw 12% / Netherlands 83%.
What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Tunisia vs Netherlands?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 3.5% Tunisia win, 8.1% draw, 88.4% Netherlands win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 3.9% / 9.6% / 86.5%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Tunisia vs Netherlands have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tunisia and Netherlands?
Tunisia and Netherlands have met 4 times: 0 Tunisia wins, 2 draws, 2 Netherlands wins.