FootyTips 
Germany vs Curaçao 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 1 · Houston Stadium
Match Status
Germany 7-1 Curaçao · FT · Hit
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours Germany to win at 88%. Overall probabilities: Germany 88%, draw 9%, Curaçao 3%; model score 3-0.
Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 88%
model top outcome · 88%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Germany 88% / Draw 9% / Curaçao 3%; expected goals 3.06-0.47; BTTS 36%; blended best estimate 91.8%/5.8%/2.4%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Germany 7-1 Curaçao. Model pick: Germany. Actual result: Germany.
Brier contribution: 0.0250 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- Germany win: 88%
- Draw: 9%
- Curaçao win: 3%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 3-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 3.06 - 0.47
- Over 2.5: 68%
- Both teams to score: 36%
Model Ratings
Germany Elo 1985 · Curaçao Elo 1602
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-11. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
Germany and Curaçao have met 1 time: 1 Germany win, 0 draws, 0 Curaçao wins.
- Germany 7–1 Curaçao · 2026-06-14 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
Our model rates Germany clear favourites at 88% in this Group E fixture at Houston Stadium — Germany 88%, the draw 9%, Curaçao 3%. A big Elo gap in Germany's favour (1985 vs 1602), and the model score forecast is 3–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 36%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win Germany vs Curaçao?
Germany are favoured at 88%. Germany 88% / Draw 9% / Curaçao 3%.
What is the predicted score for Germany vs Curaçao?
Our model score forecast is 3-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Germany vs Curaçao?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 93.8% Germany win, 4.2% draw, 1.9% Curaçao win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 91.8% / 5.8% / 2.4%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Germany vs Curaçao have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Germany vs Curaçao?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Germany and Curaçao?
Germany and Curaçao have met 1 time: 1 Germany win, 0 draws, 0 Curaçao wins.