FootyTips 
South Africa vs South Korea 
Prediction
· Group Stage - 3 · Monterrey Stadium
Match Status
South Africa 1-0 South Korea · FT · Miss
Source: FIFA calendar/matches · Updated: —
The model favours South Korea to win at 70%. Overall probabilities: South Africa 11%, draw 19%, South Korea 70%; model score 0-2.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 70%
model top outcome · 70%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: South Africa 11% / Draw 19% / South Korea 70%; expected goals 0.68-2.10; BTTS 44%; blended best estimate 14.2%/23.0%/62.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score South Africa 1-0 South Korea. Model pick: South Korea. Actual result: South Africa.
Brier contribution: 1.3284 · settled 2026-07-19
Win Probability
- South Africa win: 11%
- Draw: 19%
- South Korea win: 70%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-2
- Expected goals (model lambda): 0.68 - 2.10
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 44%
Model Ratings
South Africa Elo 1684 · South Korea Elo 1840
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-06-25. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Head-to-Head
South Africa and South Korea have met 1 time: 1 South Africa win, 0 draws, 0 South Korea wins.
- South Africa 1–0 South Korea · 2026-06-24 · FIFA World Cup
Past meetings from the martj42 dataset (CC0).
Analysis
The model installs South Korea clear favourites at 70% in this Group A fixture at Monterrey Stadium — South Africa 11%, the draw 19%, South Korea 70%. A clear Elo edge to South Korea (1840 vs 1684), and the model score forecast is 0–2.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 44%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the World Cup.
FAQ
Who will win South Africa vs South Korea?
South Korea are favoured at 70%. South Africa 11% / Draw 19% / South Korea 70%.
What is the predicted score for South Africa vs South Korea?
Our model score forecast is 0-2, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about South Africa vs South Korea?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 17.1% South Africa win, 25.2% draw, 57.7% South Korea win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 14.2% / 23.0% / 62.8%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will South Africa vs South Korea have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in South Africa vs South Korea?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between South Africa and South Korea?
South Africa and South Korea have met 1 time: 1 South Africa win, 0 draws, 0 South Korea wins.